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Russian invasion of Ukraine


Sonam

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13 minutes ago, Jedi said:

After this, what's to stop him rolling troops, tanks and aircraft right into Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia as well?

At the end of the day all Putin cares about is Putin, lining his own pockets and playing the hard man to his supporters. 

He will continue to laugh at economic sanctions, as he knows that Europe is dependent on Russian oil an gas. Once he has occupied Ukraine, although there will be ongoing guerrilla style pushback from the locals, he will be emboldened to push on into the Baltic states, in time.

What is particularly worrying is that he has China in his back pocket as supporters as well.

The expected nuclear holocaust when NATO invokes article V and the West and Russia spend a few days trading blows before the whole thing escalates.

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6 minutes ago, Ya Bezzer! said:

Well he'd have to move them from Ukraine for a start.

Russian military resources are pretty vast. Chilling echoes of 1938 here....its only Czechoslovakia, oh its only Poland, oh wait....

Clearly, America can't put a boot on the ground when its a non-NATO country such as Ukraine, but Putin probably reckons that they wouldn't risk deployment in the Baltic states either. Nothing to stop America and European countries arming Ukrainians though.

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1 minute ago, Jedi said:

Russian military resources are pretty vast. Chilling echoes of 1938 here....its only Czechoslovakia, oh its only Poland, oh wait....

Clearly, America can't put a boot on the ground when its a non-NATO country such as Ukraine, but Putin probably reckons that they wouldn't risk deployment in the Baltic states either. Nothing to stop America and European countries arming Ukrainians though.

If Nato didn't defend a Nato member we would be in trouble 

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I don't see how he's deviated from form. Not sure how people are reaching that conclusion.
I was referring to his bizarre, rambling speech he made on Monday referencing the breakup of the Soviet Union. I wasn't being completely serious with my point but you have to admit that even for Putin this is pretty ballsy
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7 minutes ago, Michael W said:

What a prism to see the entire world through. Russia invades Ukraine and his first thoughts are cancel culture and transgenders. 

 

His piece on the 20th Anniversary of 9/11 was to say that Bin Laden was the embodiment of Wokeness and Grievance culture, and was saying the Colston statue folk getting off was the beginning of the end of Western Civilisation (or some such, through his Save our Statues account) so it is by no means an outlier. It's a meme at this point that you can predict his contrary take to any major news being about the Woke Left so he's nothing if not consistent

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3 hours ago, oaksoft said:

At this rate, this thread will surpass the covid thread for experts and posting numbers within the next month. 🤣

These truly are golden days.

Not if the 'experts' who predicted Putin was posturing and had no intention of invading are barred from further contributing.

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7 minutes ago, Jedi said:

Russian military resources are pretty vast. Chilling echoes of 1938 here....its only Czechoslovakia, oh its only Poland, oh wait....

Clearly, America can't put a boot on the ground when its a non-NATO country such as Ukraine, but Putin probably reckons that they wouldn't risk deployment in the Baltic states either. Nothing to stop America and European countries arming Ukrainians though.

Not so vast as the old Soviet forces. The forces committed to the Ukraine are about 60% of their available ground forces. NATO, in the extremely unlikely condition it could get it's shit together would handily outnumber them now, unlike the old days.

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How do sanctions work against the world's 3rd largest oil producer, and 2nd largest gas supplier, unless you actually stop buying their oil and gas? Ain't going to happen of course because it would push up prices too much in the West.

The last time we had a mad dictator running around unchecked in Europe like this was 1938, and thankfully, we haven't seen the like since, until now.

Russia has to be made an absolute pariah state, not just cutting off a few oligarch's London bank accounts here and there (as if that is even happening).

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I think some of the angst surrounding Russia eventually rolling into a NATO state is a bit OTT. 

Mad as Putin is, mutually assured destruction isn't going to be high on his to do list, you'd feel. There are no winners if Russia was to attack a NATO state, none whatsoever.

Right now, the best hope of the downfall of Putin is from within. There are increasing swathes of people taking to the streets in the Russian cities. People who do not want to see this course of action from Russia or feel it is necessary. That is going to harm Putin's regime more than any economic sanctions.

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5 minutes ago, renton said:

Not so vast as the old Soviet forces. The forces committed to the Ukraine are about 60% of their available ground forces. NATO, in the extremely unlikely condition it could get it's shit together would handily outnumber them now, unlike the old days.

Only if the US joins in, which I'm not 100% sure they would do to start with.

Also the added unknown of China, who seem most likely to side with Russia.

NATO v Russia/China would be a war that couldn't end quickly or well.

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1 minute ago, RandomGuy. said:

Only if the US joins in, which I'm not 100% sure they would do to start with.

Also the added unknown of China, who seem most likely to side with Russia.

NATO v Russia/China would be a war that couldn't end quickly or well.

Article V pretty much guarantees everyone joins in. That's the point of NATO.

China won't side with Russia, but will be happy enough with the carnage unfolding on the other side of the world. They are already thinking about this as a test case for Taiwan. 

What the US does in that situation is fairly tricky. Taiwan is to semiconductors what Saudi Arabia is to oil.

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