The Very Meh Humza Yousaf Thread.

[Zen Archer (Raconteur)]

1 hour ago, orfc said:

Good job we have the greens in gubment, they'll stop this sort of thing

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-68841141

 

Oh.

 

 

[ICTChris]

I'm sure if Kate Forbes or Ash Regan were First Minister this pledge would be being met and more!

[CarrbridgeSaintee]

12 hours ago, Zen Archer (Raconteur) said:

 

 

As a Unionist, Humza is an absolute God send.

At this point, it’s like he’s actually going of his way to lose votes and dismantle his party.

[Alan Twelve]

13 hours ago, Zen Archer (Raconteur) said:

 

 

Conceding that you won't be able to meet your ambitious carbon reduction targets is not the same as simply not bothering to try for culture war reasons.

[MazzyStar]

25 minutes ago, Alan Twelve said:

Conceding that you won't be able to meet your ambitious carbon reduction targets is not the same as simply not bothering to try for culture war reasons.

[alta-pete]

31 minutes ago, Alan Twelve said:

Conceding that you won't be able to meet your ambitious carbon reduction targets is not the same as simply not bothering to try for culture war reasons.

 Be a nice idea to maybe properly think them through first though, eh? 

[Hiram Holliday]

Feck the climate! Sort out our NHS..drug problem…homeless…first!

[TONTROOPER]

Just now, Hiram Holliday said:

Feck the climate! Sort out our NHS..drug problem…homeless…first!

[Alan Twelve]

2 hours ago, alta-pete said:

 Be a nice idea to maybe properly think them through first though, eh? 

Better in my book to make the effort and fail than to deliberately break the entire fucking country for the sake of the votes of a few dumbass culture warrior wanks.

[renton]

Yousaf is looking increasingly time limited now. I suspect a lot of the Murrell damage is already priced in, but if polling does take a further kicking then the SNP will need to do something and the unfortunately styled "continuity" candidate will be in the firing line.

Actually think the Greens reaction to recent events around Cass, Puberty blockers, the missed environmental targets and also CT reform will be interesting. Their grassroots are hopping mad and given how the SG party internal democracy works, if their disgruntled elements can push through an EGM it's not unthinkable that the Greens end up being the ones who break the Bute House agreement.

I think that would end up being really damaging for Yousaf and he'd look for all the world like a lame duck.

Then it'll be a case of how long until a GE and whether or not the SNP think it's still a recoverable situation.

If it is, they'll coronate Forbes as a social conservative who can avoid a lot of the culture war issues and who will look like a decisive break with Bute House, the Greens and previous continuity. A lot on the progressive wing won't like it (and I sure as hell don't like social conservatism) but they'll swallow it if it gets them over the line.

If it isn't they'll let Yousaf take the kicking and he'll take down the previous continuity with him. The party will then engage in some soul searching and I reckon it'll be one of the relative newbies that takes over.

 

Edited April 19 by renton

[DeeTillEhDeh]

1 minute ago, renton said:

Yousaf is looking increasingly time limited now. I suspect a lot of the Murrell damage is already priced in, but if polling does take s further kicking then the SNP will need to do something and the unfortunately styled "continuity" candidate will be in the firing line.

Actually think the Greens reaction to recent events around Cass, Puberty blockers, the missed environmental targets and also CT reform will be interesting. Their grassroots are hopping mad and given how the SG party internal democracy works, if their disgruntled elements can push through an EGM it's not unthinkable that the Greens end up being the ones who break the Bute House agreement.

I think that would end up being rrally damaging for Yousaf and he'd look for all the world like a lame duck.

Then it'll be a case of how long until a GE and whether or not the SNP think it's still a recoverable situation.

If it is, they'll coronate Forbes as a social conservative who can avoid a lot of the culture war issues and who will look like a decisive break with Bute House, the Greens and previous continuity. A lot on the progressive wing won't like it (and I sure as hell don't like social conservatism) but they'll swallow it if it gets them over the line.

If it isn't they'll let Yousaf take the kicking and he'll take down the previous continuity with him. The party will then engage in some soul searching and I reckon it'll be one of the relative newbies that takes over.

 

Binning the Greens and Yousaf is the only way to go.

[JS_FFC]

4 minutes ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

Binning the Greens and Yousaf is the only way to go.

It’s not as easy as just binning the Greens though. I agree Yousaf can be sacrificed.

 

We are two years out from the next Scottish election and most likely 6/7 months out from the next general election. The most recent polling suggests that Labour have pulled close to level with the SNP in terms of popularity and is a Holyrood election was to be held now, the likely result would be the SNP and Labour coming out with a similar number of seats (like what happened in 2007) and the government would be formed by whoever could best woo the smaller parties.

 

Binning off the Greens would surely open up the government to a no confidence vote which could force it to hold a snap election where the SNP would be expected to make fairly heavy losses and possibly lose the keys to Bute House?

 

Re: Yousaf - the decision the SNP have at the moment is to either bin him off in the hope that (most likely) Forbes can claw back some of the losses before the general election. Some of the more marginal seats are probably a lost cause already but maybe she could at least limit Labour’s central belt gains to 5-10 seats rather than the 20-30 they’re on track for right now. 
 

The other option is to stick with Yousaf but if the current polling plays out in practice in the GE he would probably have to resign and then a new leader would only have 18 months to stamp their authority before the Scottish election. 

[renton]

2 minutes ago, JS_FFC said:

 

 

Binning off the Greens would surely open up the government to a no confidence vote which could force it to hold a snap election where the SNP would be expected to make fairly heavy losses and possibly lose the keys to Bute House?

 

It might be the Greens who bin it.

[JS_FFC]

Just now, renton said:

It might be the Greens who bin it.

Wouldn’t surprise me. Do we know if the Green grassroots are as socially conservative as their English and Welsh counterparts? My gut feeling is probably not because the thinly veiled transphobes would surely go to Alba instead.

 

The other question re Greens is would they be willing to put independence to bet for 5 years to help Sarwar become FM if they liked his offering on the climate? I know they’re technically an independence supporting party but I’m not sure they’re as ideologically wedded to it as the SNP. 

[renton]

13 minutes ago, JS_FFC said:

Wouldn’t surprise me. Do we know if the Green grassroots are as socially conservative as their English and Welsh counterparts? My gut feeling is probably not because the thinly veiled transphobes would surely go to Alba instead.

 

The other question re Greens is would they be willing to put independence to bet for 5 years to help Sarwar become FM if they liked his offering on the climate? I know they’re technically an independence supporting party but I’m not sure they’re as ideologically wedded to it as the SNP. 

Nah, the Scottish Greens are socially liberal. They'd have chucked Bute if Forbes had gotten the gig over Yousaf in the first place.

My guess is that the Greens would support a minority Labour government if they came out the biggest party, but it'd be a bit of a tightrope electorally to say that, given their principle vote comes from SNP constituency voters voting for them on the list. Mind you in a world where the SNP might need list votes for once, the Greens could well get squeezed anyway.

Edited April 19 by renton

[Leith Green]

14 minutes ago, renton said:

My guess is that the Greens would support a minority Labour government if they came out the biggest party,

Not sure how that would square with their stated aim of Independence. I dont think the Labour "green credentials" are any better than the (frankly dreadful) SNP ones.

Its all a bit of a mess, really.

I might vote for Colin Fox............................

[vikingTON]

57 minutes ago, JS_FFC said:

It’s not as easy as just binning the Greens though. I agree Yousaf can be sacrificed.

 

We are two years out from the next Scottish election and most likely 6/7 months out from the next general election. The most recent polling suggests that Labour have pulled close to level with the SNP in terms of popularity and is a Holyrood election was to be held now, the likely result would be the SNP and Labour coming out with a similar number of seats (like what happened in 2007) and the government would be formed by whoever could best woo the smaller parties.

 

Binning off the Greens would surely open up the government to a no confidence vote which could force it to hold a snap election where the SNP would be expected to make fairly heavy losses and possibly lose the keys to Bute House?

 

Re: Yousaf - the decision the SNP have at the moment is to either bin him off in the hope that (most likely) Forbes can claw back some of the losses before the general election. Some of the more marginal seats are probably a lost cause already but maybe she could at least limit Labour’s central belt gains to 5-10 seats rather than the 20-30 they’re on track for right now. 
 

The other option is to stick with Yousaf but if the current polling plays out in practice in the GE he would probably have to resign and then a new leader would only have 18 months to stamp their authority before the Scottish election. 

The obsession with 'holding the keys to Bute House' is part of the problem. There's no point being in government when you have pretty much no drive left to deliver serious reforms and the ministerial talent pool resembles three tadpoles in a shrivelling puddle. 

All parties of government require renewal on the sidelines eventually. Fruit loop Greens letting Scottish Labour in to run a minority administration - while ending Yousaf's leadership - would be the best possible way for the SNP to reinvigorate itself and draw a line under the past few years. 

[ICTChris]

I think the Bute House agreement is still very popular among the SNP membership.  I'm sure there was a poll not long ago showing it had 85-90% support.  I have no idea what the process is for the SNP party agreeing to it for the SNP government, as noted above the Green membership can end the agreement if they vote on it.  

Also, if I was Kate Forbes or another challenger I wouldn't look to replace Yusef in order to limit losses - let him take the defeat and then pick up afterwards.  I'm not sure who the casualties would be in the SNP MP group but maybe the composition of that group might end up being more favourable following General Election losses?  I am not up to date on my SNP Kremlinology so not sure whose supporters are most at risk.

The other thing that rings out to me on this is that discussions like these are sometimes a bit arrogant - "oh we'll take those losses, get a new leader and then we'll win all those voters back easily".  Will you?  Maybe you'll lose all your MPs who are relatively sane and be left with the zoomers?  Maybe a Labour government will steal your lunch?  Maybe there will be much more to come out about party funds that could sink them further.  When political parties try to have succession planning the electorate usually have a way of changing it - anone who remembers the Blair-Brown dramas or David Cameron talking about "yer Boris Johnson, yer Thereas Mays".  

Edited April 19 by ICTChris
typo that completely changed meaning of first sentence

[lichtgilphead]

1 hour ago, JS_FFC said:

Binning off the Greens would surely open up the government to a no confidence vote which could force it to hold a snap election where the SNP would be expected to make fairly heavy losses and possibly lose the keys to Bute House?

Don't the SNP still hold 64 seats without the Greens?

If so, they can't lose a VONC as even if the Greens vote against them, Lab, Con LD & Greens can only muster 64 votes, resulting in a tie, and the Presiding Officer votes in favour of the status quo in the event of a tie.

Obviously, this assumes that the all SNP vote together, but I can't see any of them breaking ranks...

[CarrbridgeSaintee]

1 hour ago, Leith Green said:

Not sure how that would square with their stated aim of Independence. I dont think the Labour "green credentials" are any better than the (frankly dreadful) SNP ones.

Its all a bit of a mess, really.

I might vote for Colin Fox............................

I disagree with his politics, but with Colin Fox you’re getting someone truly authentic.

Massive respect for the guy.

Edited April 19 by CarrbridgeSaintee