When will indyref2 happen?

[Granny Danger]

My HOPE, in the post-Brexit dystopia enough Scots realise that the only way forward is Independence.

My FEAR, in the post-Brexit dystopia too many Scots are frightened into opposing further change.

 

[speckled tangerine]

58 minutes ago, Granny Danger said:

My HOPE, in the post-Brexit dystopia enough Scots realise that the only way forward is Independence.

My FEAR, in the post-Brexit dystopia too many Scots are frightened into opposing further change.

 

"We're all eating out of bins.....but in an independent Scotland you would have no bins"

[Enigma]

If I was the SNP I’d be pushing for a devo max referendum. It would surely win and provide less of a leap to pure Indy. A lost Indy2 ref would sink the issue for a long while.

[renton]

1 minute ago, Enigma said:

If I was the SNP I’d be pushing for a devo max referendum. It would surely win and provide less of a leap to pure Indy. A lost Indy2 ref would sink the issue for a long while.

If we measure Devolution not by what the people of Scotland want, but rather by what Westminster is willing to deliver then we are already at Devo Max. Only the dire threat of something worse was sufficient to force the devolution (mostly) of income tax. Ironically only a further, real threat of Scottish independence would force a further concession.

[DA Baracus]

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/£3-billion-gas-field-discovered-off-the-scottish-coast/ar-AAAz6VA?li=AAnZ9Ug&ocid=mailsignout

[welshbairn]

21 hours ago, Enigma said:

If I was the SNP I’d be pushing for a devo max referendum. It would surely win and provide less of a leap to pure Indy. A lost Indy2 ref would sink the issue for a long while.

A piecemeal approach might be the best approach if winning a full indy referendum looked unlikely. Gradually forcing devolution of more powers hopefully by holding the balance at Westminster until we're independent in all but name. Then pull the trigger when the scare tactics wouldn't wash.

[NotThePars]

I think the piecemeal approach is the way the SNP might go if they hold the balance of power at the next parliament.

[The new Kia Ceed]

This needs to be done before the end of Brexit.    

If its called post-Brexit Davidson et al will be giving it "We've had years of uncertainty"  "We need stability, not ANOTHER divisive referendum"   

When we learn that it'll be a hard Brexit we need to get it called.    No will start favourite but it's very winnable.   

[Bairnardo]

This needs to be done before the end of Brexit.    

If its called post-Brexit Davidson et al will be giving it "We've had years of uncertainty"  "We need stability, not ANOTHER divisive referendum"   
When we learn that it'll be a hard Brexit we need to get it called.    No will start favourite but it's very winnable.   

There must have been loads and loads of folk who voted no purely because of being just a wee bit too wary of fucking up the status quo. At a point where the status quo is gone even if we do vote no, I think a lot of folk would be eaaily swayed to yes. Their reason not to vote yes would be gone. And I personally think that would be a high number. If we have to go into the unknown, lets do it ourselves.

[The new Kia Ceed]

9 minutes ago, Bairnardo said:

14 minutes ago, The new Kia Ceed said:

This needs to be done before the end of Brexit.    

If its called post-Brexit Davidson et al will be giving it "We've had years of uncertainty"  "We need stability, not ANOTHER divisive referendum"   
When we learn that it'll be a hard Brexit we need to get it called.    No will start favourite but it's very winnable.   

There must have been loads and loads of folk who voted no purely because of being just a wee bit too wary of fucking up the status quo. At a point where the status quo is gone even if we do vote no, I think a lot of folk would be eaaily swayed to yes. Their reason not to vote yes would be gone. And I personally think that would be a high number. If we have to go into the unknown, lets do it ourselves.

Lets not forget No won by 11%.   By the population of our biggest city.    

I'd be confident Yes would score higher than 45% next time out and folk are moving from No to Yes, but the 1/4 million required?   I doubt it.  

[Bairnardo]

Lets not forget No won by 11%.   By the population of our biggest city.    
I'd be confident Yes would score higher than 45% next time out and folk are moving from No to Yes, but the 1/4 million required?   I doubt it.  

I am not sure how much of a precedent the last one represents given how massive a change Brexit represents.

[sparky88]

25 minutes ago, The new Kia Ceed said:

This needs to be done before the end of Brexit.    

If its called post-Brexit Davidson et al will be giving it "We've had years of uncertainty"  "We need stability, not ANOTHER divisive referendum"   

When we learn that it'll be a hard Brexit we need to get it called.    No will start favourite but it's very winnable.   

Sturgeon, quite rightly, wont seek to hold a referendum that Yes are even slightly unlikely to win. Losing it could be fatal to the Yes movement. 

[renton]

1 minute ago, The new Kia Ceed said:

Lets not forget No won by 11%.   By the population of our biggest city.    

I'd be confident Yes would score higher than 45% next time out and folk are moving from No to Yes, but the 1/4 million required?   I doubt it.  

Well, 235,000 EU nationals live in Scotland. They broke 65/35 for No last time. You'd assume that they'd have every reason to vote yes this time, if, as seems likely the next one was fought on the principle of Scotland going back to some kind of close relationship with Europe. So that's 150,000 new yes voters right off the bat - for example.

[The new Kia Ceed]

1 minute ago, renton said:

Well, 235,000 EU nationals live in Scotland. They broke 65/35 for No last time. You'd assume that they'd have every reason to vote yes this time, if, as seems likely the next one was fought on the principle of Scotland going back to some kind of close relationship with Europe. So that's 150,000 new yes voters right off the bat - for example.

You're assuming 100% turnout. 

[jakedee]

You're assuming 100% turnout. 

People who have a reason,and are motivated,tend to vote.

[renton]

1 hour ago, The new Kia Ceed said:

You're assuming 100% turnout. 

It's a rough example, simply illustrating that some demographics will have motivation to change their minds which would shift the vote substantially.

[Detournement]

There's no chance EU citizens will get to vote next time if Brexit actually happens.

 

[welshbairn]

3 minutes ago, Detournement said:

There's no chance EU citizens will get to vote next time if Brexit actually happens.

 

Last time around you said there was absolutely no chance the Tories would call a referendum on leaving the EU. 

[Rodhull]

7 minutes ago, Detournement said:

There's no chance EU citizens will get to vote next time if Brexit actually happens.

 

Didn't the Scottish parliament regain the right of control over who gets to vote in Scottish based elections recently?

[Benjamin_Nevis]

H_B doing political predictions again. Excellent [emoji38]