Gordon EF Posted July 25, 2015 Share Posted July 25, 2015 Found the raw results - 14 people aged 16-17 surveyed - not exactly statistically significant. http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/LORD-ASHCROFT-POLLS-Post-referendum-poll-tables-Sept-2014.pdf Well yes, everyone acknowledges that that sample was very small. Ashcroft's wasn't the only poll. YouGov broke down the age bands differently. They asked 486 16-24 year olds and found a 50/50 split. Obviously polling comes with health warnings but the age breakdown polls tend to agree. The 16-17s were Yes, 18-24s were No and but neither by an overwhelming amount. Then it balances out as Yes being well ahead in the late 20s group, narrowing until it's about even in the mid-late 50s group, after which No surges ahead. Unionists who're try to pretend that the younger age groups weren't solidly Yes, really don't have a leg to stand on. Their only hope is that it's a case of people getting more unionist as they get older, rather than there being a fundamental difference between the current generations. If it's the latter, independence is pretty much a shoe in once this current older generation have gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeeTillEhDeh Posted July 25, 2015 Share Posted July 25, 2015 Well yes, everyone acknowledges that that sample was very small. Ashcroft's wasn't the only poll. YouGov broke down the age bands differently. They asked 486 16-24 year olds and found a 50/50 split. Obviously polling comes with health warnings but the age breakdown polls tend to agree. The 16-17s were Yes, 18-24s were No and but neither by an overwhelming amount. Then it balances out as Yes being well ahead in the late 20s group, narrowing until it's about even in the mid-late 50s group, after which No surges ahead. Unionists who're try to pretend that the younger age groups weren't solidly Yes, really don't have a leg to stand on. Their only hope is that it's a case of people getting more unionist as they get older, rather than there being a fundamental difference between the current generations. If it's the latter, independence is pretty much a shoe in once this current older generation have gone. People do change as they get older. Experiences, financial security etc all come in to play. I remember when Blair won his third term that folk were predicting that it would take another 3 elections for the Tories to get back in power - they did it in one due in no great part to Labour's handling of the country's finances. Politics and opinions can change very very rapidly - no politician should bank on a particular course of events happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AUFC90 Posted July 25, 2015 Share Posted July 25, 2015 People do change as they get older. Experiences, financial security etc all come in to play. I remember when Blair won his third term that folk were predicting that it would take another 3 elections for the Tories to get back in power - they did it in one due in no great part to Labour's handling of the country's finances. Politics and opinions can change very very rapidly - no politician should bank on a particular course of events happening. I'm 24, never voted or was even interested before the referendum. Now I'm a yes until I die. All my friends are the same. The union is on its last legs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordon EF Posted July 25, 2015 Share Posted July 25, 2015 People do change as they get older. Experiences, financial security etc all come in to play. I remember when Blair won his third term that folk were predicting that it would take another 3 elections for the Tories to get back in power - they did it in one due in no great part to Labour's handling of the country's finances. Politics and opinions can change very very rapidly - no politician should bank on a particular course of events happening. Yes, I know. People becoming more conservative/right wing as they get older is a pretty well established thing. My whole point was that we don't know what will affect future opinions in independence. If it's a general case of people getting more conservative as they get older then the pretty stark demographic divide on independence shouldn't worry unionists too much. If however, it's a generational thing. I.e. today's pensioners feel a much greater tie to the UK than younger generations do, then the demographics should be very worrying to unionists. Platitudes about 'anything can happen' are fair enough but they don't and shouldn't stop people discussing what current trends mean for the future and it doesn't mean that you can't make a sensible prediction about how things will go. Anyone in 2005 who thought we weren't going to see a Tory government until 2020 was frankly an idiot. For the same reasons this Tory government will never win the next 4 elections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordon EF Posted July 25, 2015 Share Posted July 25, 2015 I'm 24, never voted or was even interested before the referendum. Now I'm a yes until I die. All my friends are the same. The union is on its last legs. In terms of below 35s, I do know a few No voters. I know many more Yes voters. A lot of the people I know who voted Yes were similar to you, didn't have an opinion or would have voted No just because they'd heard Scotland was poor from somewhere. Pretty much all of them ended up voting Yes and most are pretty hardcore Yes voters who I seriously doubt will change their minds now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AUFC90 Posted July 25, 2015 Share Posted July 25, 2015 In terms of below 35s, I do know a few No voters. I know many more Yes voters. A lot of the people I know who voted Yes were similar to you, didn't have an opinion or would have voted No just because they'd heard Scotland was poor from somewhere. Pretty much all of them ended up voting Yes and most are pretty hardcore Yes voters who I seriously doubt will change their minds now.I doubt anyone, maybe a small amount, who are committed to an independent Scotland will change their minds. Can the same be said for no voters ? I highly doubt it.ETA. I didn't mean I wasn't interested in the referendum. What I meant was that before the referendum I wasn't interested in politics. I could see from a very early age, maybe early teens, that both of the larger parties were just the same so I never really wanted to take part. The referendum changed that for me and a lot of others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeeTillEhDeh Posted July 25, 2015 Share Posted July 25, 2015 I think there are soft voters on both sides - I know a lot of my step-daughter's friends voted Yes but then didn't vote in the election and have done nothing or got involved since 19 September. A lot of them were persuaded to vote due to social media - something the SNP are ahead of the game on. I know voters on both sides in that age group (25-35) who, when pressed, couldn't actually explain their choice. Even when they did explain their choice some of the reasoning (and this goes for No and Yes voters) was either superficial or nonsensical. In many cases they were only voting for one side or other because their friends were. I think this forum is unusual in that no matter which side folk are on (or no side at all) most posters have at least a basic understanding of the issues and can make a coherent case - well maybe apart from Kev & Parp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elixir Posted July 25, 2015 Share Posted July 25, 2015 the union hasn't caused that the Tories have. It's an argument for a different voting system, not to have an independent country that may or may not introduce austerity measures anyway. The UK means Conservative government the majority of the time you absolute whopper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alan Stubbs Posted July 25, 2015 Share Posted July 25, 2015 People can vote based on whatever reason they like. No vote is any more legitimate than another, whether based on perceived national or self interest. The folk who make a special point of telling anyone who'll listen that they vote in their own interest are the worst people though. Usually comes with lots of "what about meeeee"s and a detailed run down of their last tax return that nocunt asked for. Subhuman scum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TapothehullDee Posted July 26, 2015 Share Posted July 26, 2015 The YES vote was so poor, only 33% of eligible voters actually voted YES, that reaching 40% next time, if there is a next time, would be a gargantuan effort. As someone said Scotland has more chance of winning the world cup than being so called independent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparky88 Posted July 26, 2015 Share Posted July 26, 2015 The UK means Conservative government the majority of the time you absolute whopper. ^^^ favourite party benefits most from the voting system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xbl. Posted July 26, 2015 Share Posted July 26, 2015 ...so called independent. Go on. Humour us. Why is it "so called"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeeTillEhDeh Posted July 26, 2015 Share Posted July 26, 2015 Go on. Humour us. Why is it "so called"? I assume he is implying that being a member of the EU would not make an iScotland independent. It's the Jim Fairlie Free Scotland Party argument against the SNP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted July 26, 2015 Share Posted July 26, 2015 The YES vote was so poor, only 33% of eligible voters actually voted YES, that reaching 40% next time, if there is a next time, would be a gargantuan effort. As someone said Scotland has more chance of winning the world cup than being so called independent. Aye the World Cup of curling maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TapothehullDee Posted July 26, 2015 Share Posted July 26, 2015 Go on. Humour us. Why is it "so called"? Are the Brussels tentacles any different to the London ones. If Scotland actually ran itself from Edinburgh, the whole shebang, it might actually turn me to vote YES. Until then..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strichener Posted July 26, 2015 Share Posted July 26, 2015 Are the Brussels tentacles any different to the London ones. If Scotland actually ran itself from Edinburgh, the whole shebang, it might actually turn me to vote YES. Until then..... Until then you are happy to be ruled (in your opinion) from the EU with a little dash of Pimms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xbl. Posted July 26, 2015 Share Posted July 26, 2015 Are the Brussels tentacles any different to the London ones. If Scotland actually ran itself from Edinburgh, the whole shebang, it might actually turn me to vote YES. Until then..... Yep. I don't know if you noticed this, but we are already in the EU. Anyway, your side (the voices of no) told us we would not be allowed to join the EU, so why did you vote no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Lambies Doos Posted July 26, 2015 Author Share Posted July 26, 2015 Yep. I don't know if you noticed this, but we are already in the EU. Anyway, your side (the voices of no) told us we would not be allowed to join the EU, so why did you vote no? Cause he is a selfish tit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xbl. Posted July 26, 2015 Share Posted July 26, 2015 Cause he is a selfish tit I reckon scared and craven is probably more accurate. I don't even buy the selfishness argument. They're all just excuses for fear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bishop Briggs Posted July 26, 2015 Share Posted July 26, 2015 Yep. I don't know if you noticed this, but we are already in the EU. Anyway, your side (the voices of no) told us we would not be allowed to join the EU, so why did you vote no? It was the European Commission that said that an independent Scotland would have to apply for Membership as a new entrant. The Vice-President of the Commission wrote to the Scottish Parliament to put it on the record. The terms of Lisbon Treaty are very clear. As an committed opponent of EU membership, I was delighted. Unfortunately, the Yes campaign and the SNP claimed that the Commission was wrong and Scotland would automatically stay in. So what should a supporter of real independence (outside the EU with a iScottish currency) believe and vote in a second referendum? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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