The Big Relegation Thread

[PauloPerth]

Scottish Premiership Last 5 Match Form Table

 

		W	D	L		GF	GA	GD		Pts
1.	Rangers	4	1	0		10	2	+8		13
2.	Livingston	3	2	0		10	3	+7		11
3.	St Johnstone	1	4	0		4	3	+1		7
4.	Kilmarnock	2	1	2		5	5	0		7
5.	Celtic	1	3	1		5	4	+1		6
6.	St Mirren	1	2	2		7	6	+1		5
7.	Hamilton Academical	1	2	2		3	4	-1		5
8.	Aberdeen	1	2	2		4	6	-2		5
9.	Motherwell	1	2	2		4	8	-4		5
10.	Hibernian	1	1	3		3	7	-4		4
11.	Ross County	1	1	3		7	12	-5		4
12.	Dundee United	0	3	2		3	10	-7		3

 

You can't take very much from the recent form guide as, other than the big two (Rangers and Livingston), there's very little separating the other 10.  A lot depends on who you've played recently, and teams will change positions dramatically week to week, e.g. If st Mirren had drawn last night they'd be bottom instead of sixth.

Is it better to win and lose matches like killie; or be steady, solid and unspectacular draw specialists like St Johnstone? Time will tell.  Then there's the batter and be battered week to week approach of Ross County, who's games are producing a lot of goals.

Was surprised at Accies.  I don't think they're anywhere near as dead and buried as some people feel.  They've had 3 clean sheets in the past 5, so they're already in full scrapping mode.  On the other hand, United look like they need a win fairly quickly to stop their downward slide, as they were looking a good bet for top six a month back.

At the other end, would anyone bet against Livi overtaking Hibs in the next few weeks, and then leapfrogging Aberdeen post split to finish third?

Ultimately, the only real point to this is to see St Johnstone back in the top four in the table.

[RandomGuy.]

My worry about form tables is the context. That 1 win in 5 includes games against St Mirren, Hamilton, United and County.

Our next 5 includes Rangers, Celtic, Livingston.

1 win in 5 could easy turn into 1 win in 9.

[ropy]

Motherwell 6th equal, on the fringes of Europe

[sergie's no1 fan]

Latest odds.

[The Marly]

I wouldn't overthink it.

Wise words.

[NorthBank]

I do not think they will be in the relegation mire but am surprised by the number of points Dundee Utd have. Every time I have watched them play they have been pretty poor. No surprise they are not winning games and I could see them drop a lot further down the table.

[PauloPerth]

1 hour ago, RandomGuy. said:

My worry about form tables is the context. That 1 win in 5 includes games against St Mirren, Hamilton, United and County.

Our next 5 includes Rangers, Celtic, Livingston.

1 win in 5 could easy turn into 1 win in 9.

 I did make that very point underneath the table.

2 hours ago, PauloPerth said:

 A lot depends on who you've played recently, and teams will change positions dramatically week to week

 

[Coventry Saint]

11 minutes ago, PauloPerth said:

 I did make that very point underneath the table.

It sometimes helps to broaden the scope of the form table you're looking at. This perhaps gives a better guide: 

Being less of a dick about it, here is the last 10 (ish):

Spoiler

 

Edited January 28, 2021 by Coventry Saint

[RandomGuy.]

13 minutes ago, PauloPerth said:

 I did make that very point underneath the table.

 

Aye, sorry, didn't mean to sound like I was having a go/disagreeing, I just don't take much solace at all from form tables.

[RandomGuy.]

4 minutes ago, Coventry Saint said:

It sometimes helps to broaden the scope of the form table you're looking at. This perhaps gives a better guide: 

Being less of a dick about it, here is the last 10 (ish):

  Reveal hidden contents

 

I like this type more. Mini-league table between the bottom 7.

[PauloPerth]

29 minutes ago, Coventry Saint said:

It sometimes helps to broaden the scope of the form table you're looking at. This perhaps gives a better guide: 

Being less of a dick about it, here is the last 10 (ish):

  Hide contents

 

I like the Sean Connery one underneath, but surely a form table should be over a set number of matches that everyone has played?  Shows Accies and St. Mirren in an upward direction, but the bottom 5 of us similarly shite.

@RandomGuy. 's bottom dwellers mini-league is a good one, if nothing else it shows us doing okay.  That's maybe the answer to facing relegation; you keep churning out tables until you get one your team is doing okay in. The ultimate denial of the reality! 

I fancy us to be mid-table in the away form only league...

[Ric]

3 minutes ago, PauloPerth said:

..bottom dwellers mini-league is a good one.

It's really not, it's classic cherry picking.

[craigkillie]

32 minutes ago, Ric said:

It's really not, it's classic cherry picking.

Well, given that the relegation spots will almost certainly be decided after the split, it's about as useful a guide as you could get for that. Certainly more useful than a six game form guide that is entirely beholden to the vagaries of the fixture list.

[Ric]

3 minutes ago, craigkillie said:

Well, given that the relegation spots will almost certainly be decided after the split, it's about as useful a guide as you could get for that. Certainly more useful than a six game form guide that is entirely beholden to the vagaries of the fixture list.

After the split, yes, now? No.

[craigkillie]

We're already only a handful of games away from the split, and this table is therefore already very useful in terms of predicting what will happen when it does come.

[Ric]

2 minutes ago, craigkillie said:

We're already only a handful of games away from the split, and this table is therefore already very useful in terms of predicting what will happen when it does come.

it's a table showing points not form. Not sure how relevant our win at Livi in the opening weeks is to their, and our, current teams and form.

 

[The Marly]

We're already only a handful of games away from the split, and this table is therefore already very useful in terms of predicting what will happen when it does come.

To be fair, a St Mirren fan obviously has more knowledge of how to plan a relegation battle than fans of your club or mine.

[AmericanFan]

18 hours ago, PauloPerth said:

That is quite some statement when you consider the fact that if we beat killie, and Celtic beat st mirren this weekend then we’ll be above both of them (killie and at mirren), and be 5 points ahead of Motherwell.

Not saying it’s impossible, but I don’t think anyone has yet shown enough consistency out of the bottom 7 to be a certainty.

Accies will have a wee run at some stage as well.

I don't think United is out of the woods, either. At some point, they're actually going to have to win a match (and that requires scoring), and getting hammered by St. Mirren isn't exactly a great sign moving forward.

[AmericanFan]

3 hours ago, sergie's no1 fan said:

Latest odds.

United at 25-1 is pretty good value.

[PauloPerth]

1 hour ago, AmericanFan said:

I don't think United is out of the woods, either. At some point, they're actually going to have to win a match (and that requires scoring), and getting hammered by St. Mirren isn't exactly a great sign moving forward.

They’re certainly headed in that direction the way they are performing. Agree with you that 25/1for Utd is very generous.  But then I said st mirren were in danger of getting dragged back into it then they go and scud Utd 5-1, so who knows?!

The problem for the clubs who you could argue have better players; Motherwell, St Johnstone, Kilmarnock, is that as it gets towards the closing stages of the season, it’s less about having the better players, and more about handling the pressure and being able to scrap.  This is where Hamilton, st mirren and Ross County have the advantage.

Hamilton are a good example; for a fair few of the past six seasons many folk would say Accies were the poorest team on paper. But they’ve always done enough to keep in touch, then pulled out big results in the closing stages when it mattered to stay up. They’ve been brilliant at it.