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30 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

Not right.

I could produce a graph that says next Tuesday we will have anywhere between 100 and 2,200 deaths. I'd be right, but it's hardly useful.

When projections with such uncertainty are presented to Governments and made public it ties a government's hands.

Even if they know it's bollocks and ignore it as worthless, if anything close to the top end is reached, they would be villified.

The same institution presented the 500,000 deaths info that caused the current lockdown

You think it’s not useful to know that there is a high degree of uncertainty and what the likely ranges might be? 

I think it is useful. For contingency planning and the like. 

Do you think that the estimate of 500,000 deaths in a "do nothing" scenario has been disproved? If so, how? 

It looks to me that it would probably have been right within an order of magnitude, say 100k-1m. That's more useful than thinking it might be like a normal flu or wipe out 50%of the population. 

What would you like to replace this sort of modelling with? Tea leaves, astrology perhaps? 

 

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1 minute ago, coprolite said:

Do you think that the estimate of 500,000 deaths in a "do nothing" scenario has been disproved? If so, how? 

If you genuinely believe that 500,000 would have died had we done nothing then absolutely nothing I say will change that viewpoint.

If the fact that the Dr who delivered that figure has previous for being a mile out coupled with the current figures doesn't convince you then that's your call

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42 minutes ago, accies1874 said:

Well it's been however many weeks but I'm sorry to announce that some asshole in my street has decided that they must now play the trumpet at 8PM on a Thursday. Thankfully no pots and pans yet, but I'm sure tonight's addition will spark the race to outdo each other.

you deserve your misery tbh

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14 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

If you genuinely believe that 500,000 would have died had we done nothing then absolutely nothing I say will change that viewpoint.

If the fact that the Dr who delivered that figure has previous for being a mile out coupled with the current figures doesn't convince you then that's your call

The number of 500,000  almost certainly would have been wrong. 

Complex systems are hard to predict. 

It is incredibly difficult for a model to accurately predict an exact future state. They are mostly useful for comparative analyses of different scenarios. 

Tea leaves or astrology? 

 

 

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12 minutes ago, coprolite said:

The number of 500,000  almost certainly would have been wrong. 

Complex systems are hard to predict. 

Maybe so, but with a track record like this maybe you should stop chucking scaremongering figures about.

20200507_203715.jpg

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1 hour ago, ParsJake said:

The 8pm clap seems to have gained in traction in my street, quite a few folk out applauding but they all went in at 8:05pm, so it seems that they can only care for 5 minutes.

An unwelcome first was some wipe setting off a firework at 2 minutes to 8.

The Mrs is on a local Facebook page for our village and a couple of weeks ago someone was complaining that they couldn't find their dog after some c**t fired a shotgun at 8pm.

Edited by Tony Ferrino
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In normal times, the CH4 news report tonight about the so called PPE stockpile should bring a Govt. down.

Odds not very big on it affecting this one.

I’d suggest it may ultimately affect them in a major way. That time isn’t now though. Any attempt by opposition to bring the government down or even majorly criticise it would instantly be labelled as unpatriotic. Not easy to bring down a government with a huge majority. Chilling to think the next general election isn’t due until 2024.

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6 hours ago, D.A.F.C said:

Mentioned earlier in the thread that it's a quiet street and you notice when a car is going past. 8/10 times hear the car and look towards the window. Yep same car.
I have no idea who lives in the house until today when I was out doing the garden and spotted him coming out.
It's not a huge issue but some folk have been taking the piss big time while the majority have been staying in.
Without being too dramatic it could result in other people dying so forgive me if I develop a hatred for bampots being selfish.

The guy won't get far if some careless carpenter called out in an emergency had accidentally left some nails in the road and they had mysteriously found their way into his tyres.. :whistle

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38 minutes ago, Tony Ferrino said:

The Mrs is on a local Facebook page for our village and a couple of weeks ago someone was complaining that they couldn't find their dog after some c**t fired a shotgun at 8pm.

That's like something out of Midsomer Murders: "we thought the noise was part of the appreciation for the NHS, Inspector, but it was actually old Mr Scrott being blasted with a shotgun..."

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