Next permanent Scotland manager

[Ziggy Sobotka]

26 minutes ago, itzdrk said:

I'm so lost about what the problem is, are we supposed to be pretending there aren't loads of Ukrainian men in Scotland? 

It's by no means the worse comment by a candidate in this election and it's all a bit accidental Partridge but you're addressing a room full of Ukrainian women who have fled a war. There's going to be a high likelihood that some of these women's husbands, sons, brothers are fighting (maybe even dying in) this war.

[welshbairn]

49 minutes ago, itzdrk said:

I'm so lost about what the problem is, are we supposed to be pretending there aren't loads of Ukrainian men in Scotland? 

No male over 18 or under 60 has an automatic right to leave Ukraine, because of the war, but there are a long list of exceptions.

Edited March 16 by welshbairn

[itzdrk]

Just now, welshbairn said:

Nobody over 18 or under 60 has an automatic right to leave Ukraine because of the war, but there are a long list of exceptions.

Yeah I'm very aware.  My girlfriend works with them.  

[welshbairn]

3 minutes ago, itzdrk said:

Yeah I'm very aware.  My girlfriend works with them.  

Aye, sorry, hadn't watched the tiny clip. I'd imagine Humza was trying to raise the issue of why there weren't any men there rather than not knowing.

[itzdrk]

1 minute ago, welshbairn said:

Aye, sorry, hadn't watched the tiny clip. I'd imagine Humza was trying to raise the issue of why there weren't any men there rather than not knowing.

Yeah, it's really helpful that it's been clipped to only 6 seconds so no context is possible.  

I've read what Humza said about it and whatever.  I'd rather have the rest of the clip, unless I'm to believe someone started recording exactly when he was going to speak and immediately stopped....

[ScotiaNostra]

1 hour ago, Theyellowbox said:

I think what we are seeing is two things. One is the Ferguson syndrome, where nobody really wanted to be the person to follow Alex Ferguson at Man Utd as everyone knew the next would be set for failure. Any one of the 3 of them could/likely will spectacularly fail at next set of elections and be out. Leaving the path for someone more sensible to come in and pick up the pieces.

The other, it allows for a clear out of some of the more 'fringe' folk, like Regan (assuming she doesn't win) and regardless of the other two, probably drags the party more to the centre ground.

I'd assume, that if you are a party member, your view on independence doesn't change, so the decision is what candidate both gives you the best chance at achieving the ultimate goal while being most aligned with your personal views.

I'm not surprised that Forbes has a lot of support, as for as much as the SNP are seen as progressive, Scotland as a whole and the SNP by extension are more small c conservative than they or the media would have you believe.

Equally, Humza Yousaf for being progressive, knows that and probably needs to 'new Labour' the SNP to move to the centre.

Either way, it's a drag to the centre by whoever gets in, but they won't be around for long.

If I'm Robertson, Swinney or such like, I'd be delighted with letting a civil war play out and clear things up, before being the saviour, so long as they don't fatally rip themselves apart.

I would just add, compared to the Tory or Labour leadership battles of the past, all 3 at least have a fundamental goal that unites them, despite the differences. 

The issue with the Ferguson syndrome is that it wasnt just the next manager, it was several next managers after him. It doesnt necessarily get easier to pick up the pieces after its started to go downhill. Its probably easier now than after whoever wins this.

 

I think your right that Scotland is more small c conservative than most realise

Edited March 16 by ScotiaNostra

[sophia]

1 hour ago, Theyellowbox said:

I think what we are seeing is two things. One is the Ferguson syndrome, where nobody really wanted to be the person to follow Alex Ferguson at Man Utd as everyone knew the next would be set for failure. Any one of the 3 of them could/likely will spectacularly fail at next set of elections and be out. Leaving the path for someone more sensible to come in and pick up the pieces.

The other, it allows for a clear out of some of the more 'fringe' folk, like Regan (assuming she doesn't win) and regardless of the other two, probably drags the party more to the centre ground.

I'd assume, that if you are a party member, your view on independence doesn't change, so the decision is what candidate both gives you the best chance at achieving the ultimate goal while being most aligned with your personal views.

I'm not surprised that Forbes has a lot of support, as for as much as the SNP are seen as progressive, Scotland as a whole and the SNP by extension are more small c conservative than they or the media would have you believe.

Equally, Humza Yousaf for being progressive, knows that and probably needs to 'new Labour' the SNP to move to the centre.

Either way, it's a drag to the centre by whoever gets in, but they won't be around for long.

If I'm Robertson, Swinney or such like, I'd be delighted with letting a civil war play out and clear things up, before being the saviour, so long as they don't fatally rip themselves apart.

I would just add, compared to the Tory or Labour leadership battles of the past, all 3 at least have a fundamental goal that unites them, despite the differences. 

I'm not so sure that the Ferguson comparison is a good one.

Ferguson went out on a high and the same cannot possibly be said about Nicola. Arsene Wenger's trajectory might be a better fit.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

2 hours ago, Rugster said:

Aw you’re back. Magic. 

Ffs don't quote Mintermind

[alta-pete]

10 minutes ago, sophia said:

I'm not so sure that the Ferguson comparison is a good one.

Ferguson went out on a high and the same cannot possibly be said about Nicola. Arsene Wenger's trajectory might be a better fit.

While there are different benchmarks of success, I’d suggest Salmond was indeed the SNP’s Ferguson.

Took the Independence movement from ~25% support to garner enough validity to secure a UK endorsed referendum and then 45% of the voters.

Since then - and his understandable resignation when it failed - with an initial emotive protest blip, it’s been a fairly downhill slide since that NS has done a very competent PR job to try and keep on side.

I have a notion however that the slide has just had some warm butter placed under it and it’s now picking up a wee bit more pace….

[Inanimate Carbon Rod]

6 hours ago, Bodie said:

So they've lost close to 1/3 of their members since December 2021.

 

No wonder

[Leith Green]

4 hours ago, bennett said:

 

 

 

It certainly only took him one election and a few "sleepy cuddles" to destroy Alba.

[Lyle Lanley]

8 hours ago, Have some faith in Magic said:

It was Dec 21 for me too. Cancelled my membership when they totally lost any ability for rational thinking. 

Cancelled my membership in August 2021. 

[Iain]

I remain sceptical of the idea that the SNP are going to suddenly start losing elections when there's no credible opposition. Humza and Forbes may be unimpressive compared to Nicola, but they're both streets ahead of Sarwar, Cole-Hamilton and Ross. 

[welshbairn]

Maybe the last debate tonight, 7.20.

https://www.inverness-courier.co.uk/debate/

[Elixir]

The SNP are absolutely in the gutter, aren't they? Finished party. It's going to be a slow motion car crash watching certain folk on here come to terms with it.

[Dunning1874]

39 minutes ago, Iain said:

I remain sceptical of the idea that the SNP are going to suddenly start losing elections when there's no credible opposition. Humza and Forbes may be unimpressive compared to Nicola, but they're both streets ahead of Sarwar, Cole-Hamilton and Ross. 

All opposition leaders would have to do to put Forbes on the back foot in the event she wins is quote her.

[Iain]

10 minutes ago, Dunning1874 said:

All opposition leaders would have to do to put Forbes on the back foot in the event she wins is quote her.

It would be quite interesting to have the Greens grow and become the leftist Indy party and the SNP establish itself as a centrist Indy party with conservative economics. Would even the playing field a little with the split Unionist vote

[renton]

44 minutes ago, Elixir said:

The SNP are absolutely in the gutter, aren't they? Finished party. It's going to be a slow motion car crash watching certain folk on here come to terms with it.

They won't be the first party to go through an acrimonious leadership election. 

[renton]

29 minutes ago, Dunning1874 said:

All opposition leaders would have to do to put Forbes on the back foot in the event she wins is quote her.

Imagine Forbes would have to put together a brain trust comprising Ewing, Mason and the ghost of John Knox and then do a massive 90 degree veer to the right in the first 100 days to negate that barb.

[Leith Green]

1 hour ago, Iain said:

I remain sceptical of the idea that the SNP are going to suddenly start losing elections when there's no credible opposition. Humza and Forbes may be unimpressive compared to Nicola, but they're both streets ahead of Sarwar, Cole-Hamilton and Ross. 

I think the whole "membership numbers" schtick has been massively overblown.

There was a peak around the time that the inquiry was going after Sturgeon (lots of people joined in solidarity).

Yep, they have dropped since then, but the SNP still has huge per capita membership numbers versus every other party.

While Labour are certainly looking like the party to gain any lost SNP voters, the notion that masses of people who previously wanted Independence are voting in droves for the Unionist parties is just tinfoil hat stuff.