Jump to content

Red Sea Crisis


Recommended Posts

4 hours ago, Dunning1874 said:

First we have Iran using this escalation as a pretext to escalate themselves, going after US bases in Iraq and Syria….

Let’s be clear that Iran itself has done nothing of the sort. They conducted a precision (relatively) long-range missile strike (revealing a hitherto unknown accuracy and range) against targets near the U.S. Consulate, but did not strike the Consulate. They are playing by the international handbook by using proxies to attack the U.S. bases in Iraq and Syria with short range drones and unguided missiles. The hawks want to combine the two into Iran did this, but they are playing by the great power “rules” that work to reduce direct confrontations between nation states. Plausible deniability, f**king with the status quo since the Romans.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

one-job-fail.gif


Two Royal Navy warships collide off coast of Bahrain - BBC News

Two Royal Navy warships collide off coast of Bahrain

An investigation is under way after two UK warships collided at a port in Bahrain, the Royal Navy says.

Video widely shared on social media appeared to show HMS Chiddingfold reverse into HMS Bangor off the coast in the Middle Eastern port. No-one was hurt in the incident, the Ministry of Defence said, declining to comment on the nature of the collision while investigations continue.

The two ships are part of the UK's long-standing presence in the Gulf. Both are specialist minesweeper vessels, helping ensure the safe flow of trade through the waters, the Royal Navy said.

Footage unverified by the BBC showed what seemed to be a large hole in the fibreglass hull of HMS Bangor following the crash.

It is not the first time HMS Chiddingfold has been involved in such an incident. In 2021, also off the coast of Bahrain, it struck HMS Penzance, a ship of the same class as HMS Bangor. HMS Bangor is due to be decommissioned next year.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, HibeeJibee said:

It is not the first time HMS Chiddingfold has been involved in such an incident. In 2021, also off the coast of Bahrain, it struck HMS Penzance, a ship of the same class as HMS Bangor.

I like this bit. Clearly HMS Chiddingfold is a bit of a prankster.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 17/01/2024 at 09:40, Freedom Farter said:

Biden is now putting the Houthis on the terror list which is bad news for the roughly 20M Yemenis for whom that's their government. (https://apnews.com/article/us-houthis-red-sea-jake-sullivan-yemen-ff507d06a7a44d6f3644f128e7766b3d).Screenshot2024-01-179_30_07AM.png.16c8d02f23fbfa6e9ddc13b3503540a7.png

 

This won't do anything to deter the Houthis' current Red Sea disruption. It'll please UAE, though, who've been lobbying hard for it This is from a year ago (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-yemen-envoy-lenderking-visit-gulf-london-state-department-2022-01-19/)

Screenshot2024-01-179_28_29AM.png.f07fe5835aec183ca6eadf3b852cb2d3.png

 

Emirati efforts have been so intense that when I googled it just now, some propaganda pamphlet of theirs was the top result:

Screenshot_20240117_090851_Chrome.thumb.jpg.124d065e5a90f507c08f265cb2bd7836.jpg

More UAE meddling. BBC published this today. It reports how UAE uses both al-Qaeda and US mercenaries to attack the Houthis:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-67945137

 

It's little wonder the Houthis haven't put down their arms and focused on more mundane matters of governance when they're sanctioned to oblivion, designated terrorists, are under constant attack by al-Qaeda, by US mercenaries, and are now having US missiles fired at them following years of joint Saudi-UAE bombardment.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

So today's Houthi missile attack on a ship in the gulf if Aden is an intolerable attack on a "UK operated" ship that the govt says will result in further UK military response. The BBC just reported the ship was carrying Russian crude oil, isn't that a blatant violation of the sanctions imposed on Russia by the UK ???

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Billy Jean King said:

So today's Houthi missile attack on a ship in the gulf if Aden is an intolerable attack on a "UK operated" ship that the govt says will result in further UK military response. The BBC just reported the ship was carrying Russian crude oil, isn't that a blatant violation of the sanctions imposed on Russia by the UK ???

Yeah the story was up for a few hours before they found a UK 'link', then changed the story. Seems a bit 'state media' too me.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 hours ago, johnnydun said:

Yeah the story was up for a few hours before they found a UK 'link', then changed the story. Seems a bit 'state media' too me.

Have you ever had to read a car rental agreement, it takes time to figure this stuff out. You can’t just hop on a tanker like one of those rental scooters in some places.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, TxRover said:

Have you ever had to read a car rental agreement, it takes time to figure this stuff out. You can’t just hop on a tanker like one of those rental scooters in some places.

gYRCBQL6IBig.gif.d969a1d63d45dbbcf33cf37a1fc8c74f.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 minutes ago, johnnydun said:

gYRCBQL6IBig.gif.d969a1d63d45dbbcf33cf37a1fc8c74f.gif

Have you ever put washing up liquid in a dishwasher…ah, impetuous youth, how I recall such stupidity. Of course, the whole kitchen got cleaned…

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, TxRover said:

Have you ever put washing up liquid in a dishwasher…ah, impetuous youth, how I recall such stupidity. Of course, the whole kitchen got cleaned…

Soap flakes in the washing machine can have a similar effect.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, TxRover said:

Have you ever had to read a car rental agreement, it takes time to figure this stuff out. You can’t just hop on a tanker like one of those rental scooters in some places.

airplane-movie-been-turkish-prison-8g70y7ztmmoyv9nf.gif.a435b84d21654016c63b74a6a4dacc3c.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This isn't strictly an analysis of the current shipping disruption although that does get mentioned. Rather, it mostly looks at the use of mercenaries by USA and UAE as part of their strategy to crush self-governance in southern Yemen.

Edited by Freedom Farter
Link to comment
Share on other sites

That documentary exposes clear injustice. The American mercenaries, living in Florida with their sun tans and whitened teeth, were paid millions to murder mostly innocents in one of the world's poorest nations. A human rights lawyer had her son assassinated by them because her activism in southern Yemen, her uncovering of abuses by the UAE-backed forces there, was causing a headache to UAE. 

The plausible deniability at state level is only plausible to the pathologically naive. The nationalities involved are always those of close US allies. The company was owned and organised by an Israeli, the murder team were former elite US military, then the client state was UAE.  When the mercenaries are directly questioned if they had Washington approval, they of course deny it, but the confidence and immediacy with which they claim to have been acting in US interests leaves little doubt.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

So it’s getting a bit more interesting for Iran in the area, and likely a LOT more interesting for the Houthis.

The Iranians are now starting to get the problems that America (and the Russians, and the British, and the French, etc) has had for years with proxies. The proxies start to believe what’s written on the tin, rather than what is actually true. The Iranians need to rein in their proxies now, and the proxies feel they’re finally doing what Iran said they wanted. However, the actions of these proxies are pissing off Iran’s friends in India, Russia and China, so the Iranians are now getting heat from both their allies AND enemies.

It was noted that the Houthi leadership has been spotted evacuating their facilities, in response to U.S. statements, but there’s a fair chance that the U.S. will probably receive some targeting data from Iran on this particular “issue”, just to keep Iran on the right side of the regional power/plausible deniability “rules”. The Houthis may thus be about to get multiple 1000-lb plus, laser or gps guided lessons in international f**k me/f**k you politics.

The other question will be the people responsible for the Jordanian base drone strike. Those laddies are part of the loosely affiliated Iranian Revolutionary Guards supported militias in the region. The Revolutionary Guards are much less likely than the Iranian Government to give any location data to the U.S. (cue Soleimani videos), so the U.S. may instead elect to use the opportunity to slag their current favourite baddies in that orbit, with Esmail Qaani the odds-on favorite for a rude message.

If that’s what happens in these two cases, it’ll be a pretty clear indication that the Iranian Government and the Revolutionary Guards are now at clearly differing points and the internal stuff in Iran could get messy quickly. Open internal conflict in Iran would hurt the Russian efforts in Ukraine, stop supplies to the Houthis and various militias in the Middle East and possibly cause significant realignment across the region, if a change of regime occurs. This, of course, would be antithetical to the Saudi’s desires to remain a major power in the region, and possibly just cause more instability within the region.

Of course, a successful strike against Qaani would have the same effect, from a Saudi perspective, as it would harden (in the short-term) the Iranian Governmental resistance to the U.S., despite it being a strike against the problematic Revolutionary Guards, and possibly weakening them. Which could also mean multiple sources have reasons to provide location data on Qaani to the U.S. now…

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...