Granny Danger Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 1 hour ago, Salvo Montalbano said: Disagree about this. Yes, there were a lot of crazy stunts at the start but they got Ed Davey noticed (how many people out of the politics nerds knew who he was?) and then once he and they started getting more media attention they were able to get some policy stuff out there, especially around adult social care and support for children with disabilities (particularly after the PEB where he spoke about looking after his own disabled child). Since then, the stunts have stopped and Nationally they are polling pretty well. Seems like a successful campaign to me? We will have to agree to disagree. You are implying that their polling figures are as a result of a successful campaign, do you think the same can be applied to Labour? I certainly don’t. The likely LibDem ‘success’ like the Labour ‘success’ will almost entirely be due to a total disillusionment with the Tories and a desperate search for any party that those disillusioned voters can support to give Sunak a bloody nose. I wouldn’t be surprised if Labour gets a thumping majority with one of the lowest voter turnouts in recent years, I can see the LibDems votes per seat won being equally poor. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Salvo Montalbano Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 1 hour ago, Granny Danger said: We will have to agree to disagree. You are implying that their polling figures are as a result of a successful campaign, do you think the same can be applied to Labour? I certainly don’t. The likely LibDem ‘success’ like the Labour ‘success’ will almost entirely be due to a total disillusionment with the Tories and a desperate search for any party that those disillusioned voters can support to give Sunak a bloody nose. I wouldn’t be surprised if Labour gets a thumping majority with one of the lowest voter turnouts in recent years, I can see the LibDems votes per seat won being equally poor. I'm judging success for the Lib Dems in a slightly different way tbf. In seats where they were close to beating the Tories last time out then yes, their success will be based on getting rid of the current MP. But I think they'll pick up votes elsewhere, from Labour as well as the Conservatives, and people generally speaking will at least now have some sort of idea of what they stand for rather than not even knowing they still exist as a party. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheese Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 On 12/06/2024 at 22:33, Cheese said: He's looking slightly less bald today. Back to fraudulently bald status. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coprolite Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 3 hours ago, Arch Stanton said: WTAF is this implying? Apparently it would be terrible if workers had the same rights as the ghastly frogs. French per capita gdp adjusted for ppp is $61k, ours is $58k. Thats about the best economic proxy for material living standards. And they work fewer hours. And retire earlier. I'm terrified by this prospect myself. Maybe i'm just not patriotic enough. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Salt n Vinegar Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 3 hours ago, coprolite said: Apparently it would be terrible if workers had the same rights as the ghastly frogs. French per capita gdp adjusted for ppp is $61k, ours is $58k. Thats about the best economic proxy for material living standards. And they work fewer hours. And retire earlier. I'm terrified by this prospect myself. Maybe i'm just not patriotic enough. As someone who took early retirement I can assure you it's nothing to be afraid of. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boo Khaki Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 (edited) 12 hours ago, Granny Danger said: We will have to agree to disagree. You are implying that their polling figures are as a result of a successful campaign, do you think the same can be applied to Labour? I certainly don’t. The likely LibDem ‘success’ like the Labour ‘success’ will almost entirely be due to a total disillusionment with the Tories and a desperate search for any party that those disillusioned voters can support to give Sunak a bloody nose. I wouldn’t be surprised if Labour gets a thumping majority with one of the lowest voter turnouts in recent years, I can see the LibDems votes per seat won being equally poor. Was reading elsewhere a few folk postulating that Starmer will likely win an enormous Majority, with fewer popular votes than Jeremy Corbyn's 2017 Labour Party. Considering Starmer has never been shy in lambasting Corbyn and everything and everyone associated with his time as Labour leader, that is an absolute screaming minter. Edited June 30 by Boo Khaki 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GordonS Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 (edited) 13 minutes ago, Boo Khaki said: Was reading elsewhere a few folk postulating that Starmer will likely win an enormous Majority, with fewer popular votes than Jeremy Corbyn's 2017 Labour Party. Considering Starmer has never been shy in lambasting Corbyn and everything and everyone associated with his time as Labour leader, that is an absolute screaming minter. I mentioned on the polling thread that Labour are a long, long way behind where they were at this stage in 1997. Corbyn got 40% and 12.9 million votes in 2017. I think Labour will do a little better than that on Thursday but not much. The highest number of votes any leader has had in a UK election is John Major, with 14.1 million in 1992. That's over half a million more than Blair got in 1997. Edited June 30 by GordonS 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boo Khaki Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 (edited) 23 minutes ago, GordonS said: I mentioned on the polling thread that Labour are a long, long way behind where they were at this stage in 1997. Corbyn got 40% and 12.9 million votes in 2017. I think that's pretty much the same as how Labour will do on Thursday. The highest number of votes any leader has had in a UK election is John Major, with 14.1 million in 1992. That's over half a million more than Blair got in 1997. Aye, I'm just curious to see (if what feels like an inevitable Labour landslide) is trumpeted by Starmer and Co as some sort of watershed moment for Labour, when I suspect the popular vote/turnout figures might paint a very different story, i.e. complete collapse of the Tory vote, people utterly sick to the back teeth of them, and Labour winning as a GIRFUY to the Tories rather than anyone being particularly enthused by the Red lot. My concern, other than just simply having no enthusiasm for being led from Westminster in the first place, is that Labour are delusional enough to believe that this signals some sort of appetite for Labour politics, because I can not see them achieving much of anything over the next 5 years, and that is going to be against a backdrop of either Farage, or the lunatic rump of the Tory party led by some ubercunt like Badenoch or Braverman sniping away with complete impunity. I think that would inevitably lead to England's true identity as an inherently right-wing nation rearing it's head once again in 2029, and we'll be faced with an incoming government that is even more right-wing, more batsshit, more cruel and self-serving, and even more inexcusable than the shower we've been putting up with since 2019. I'm in no way suggesting that everything was fine being led by Tories prior to 2019, but I don't honestly believe you can make a lot of comparisons between Cameron and May's time, and the arse absolutely falling out of everything since Johnson got his feet under the table. There is a venality, a cruelty, and a flagrant disregard for any form of decency and/or respect for convention that appeared as soon as that 2019 GE was over. You can see by the number of old-timer Tories who chucked it prior to that election that they saw it coming after the HoC descending into a shitshow for the entirety of the Brexit debates, May debasing the office of PM by allowing herself to be held hostage by a small group of lunatics, and agitators like Johnson just desperate to fan the flames for their own gain. I have no doubt that however the Tories reinvent themselves after this scudding, it will invariably lead to some version of the party that is even more repugnant and insufferable than even the current lot are. Even if they don't get their shit together between now and 2029, that leaves the door open for Farage and his bunch of racists/fascists, so whatever happens, I'm fearful that unless Starmer can start pulling magic rabbits out of his arse and somehow convince England they genuinely are better for the UK than the realistic alternatives, 2029 onwards is going to make 2019-24 look like a halcyon period. I recall saying to my in-laws prior to the 2014 ref "if you vote "No", you aren't just rejecting Indi, you are endorsing Westminster, and asking for whatever fucking fiasco occurs down there in future". Of course, they both trotted off and voted "No". Did I see fascism on the horizon? Well, no, not specifically, but I knew in my bones that things down there were only ever going to change for the worse, and that was our opportunity to dispense with it altogether. Edited June 30 by Boo Khaki 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fullerene Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 It is FPTP that makes England seem more right wing than it really is. When the Tories are the virtually the only party on the right and there are several parties on the left then they win most of the time. FPTP gives the impression the UK is massively for Labour or massively for the Tories when it is not. Starmer can do whatever he likes but if by 2029 the UK electorate (mainly England) have forgiven the Tories and they resume being the only party on the right then they could win again with only a small change in the vote. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boo Khaki Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 I accept the point about FPTP leading to skewed representation in the HoC, but I think it's clear just from the history of governance down there that England is an inherently right-leaning country that occasionally dabbles with Labour when the Tories have rendered themselves so unelectable that sufficient numbers of English voters can't bring themselves to do their usual thing. I've just come from another forum where a "who are you voting for?" topic is full of English voters acknowledging the Tories are awful, but insisting they are going to vote Tory anyway because "Labour will be worse", and that "Labour will destroy the country". Have you looked out the fucking window lately? Ok, you can't account for the genuinely stupid, hard of thinking, or ideologues who would vote Tory on a point of principle even if it was a Tory manifesto pledge to exterminate them and their entire families, but I still think that in a "normal" electoral cycle, England is going to vote Tory by default, and that only changes when voting Tory becomes unconscionable for enough of the English electorate for it to actually make a Labour win viable. I didn't vote Labour in 1997 because I had no enthusiasm at all for Blair and his Tory-lite crap, and I always thought the man himself had zero substance to him, a completely fabricated public persona, I thought he was downright sinister rather than charismatic, but I could understand other people's enthusiasm for it after 18 years of the fucking Tories, and the perception that Blair had chased away the old image of Labour being utterly beholden to the Unions. This time, I sense no such enthusiasm at all for Starmer, and it's almost entirely a case of "get the fucking Tories out", so again, that doesn't diminish my underlying impression that England votes Tory by default, and Labour when they are in the huff with the Tories. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 5 hours ago, Fullerene said: It is FPTP that makes England seem more right wing than it really is. When the Tories are the virtually the only party on the right and there are several parties on the left then they win most of the time. FPTP gives the impression the UK is massively for Labour or massively for the Tories when it is not. Starmer can do whatever he likes but if by 2029 the UK electorate (mainly England) have forgiven the Tories and they resume being the only party on the right then they could win again with only a small change in the vote. Well if the imminent Labour government ditches FPTP and introduces PR that won’t happen… 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leith Green Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 BBC R4 doing vox pops in a Carluke garden centre. They have managed to interview prospective SNP, Labour, Green, Reform, Lib Dem voters so far. Christ, talk about covering all your bases....................... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fullerene Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 41 minutes ago, Granny Danger said: Well if the imminent Labour government ditches FPTP and introduces PR that won’t happen… Exactly. Except it won't happen. If the system gives them a whopping majority then they will keep it. Incredible short termism. All the good they do in this government will be ditched by the next Tory one. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 33 minutes ago, Leith Green said: BBC R4 doing vox pops in a Carluke garden centre. They have managed to interview prospective SNP, Labour, Green, Reform, Lib Dem voters so far. Christ, talk about covering all your bases....................... Any sign of Rudy? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AyrExile Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 Can the scottish natsis win more seats than they lose om Thursday? The big question for the only show in town -3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fullerene Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 6 hours ago, Boo Khaki said: I accept the point about FPTP leading to skewed representation in the HoC, but I think it's clear just from the history of governance down there that England is an inherently right-leaning country that occasionally dabbles with Labour when the Tories have rendered themselves so unelectable that sufficient numbers of English voters can't bring themselves to do their usual thing. I've just come from another forum where a "who are you voting for?" topic is full of English voters acknowledging the Tories are awful, but insisting they are going to vote Tory anyway because "Labour will be worse", and that "Labour will destroy the country". Have you looked out the fucking window lately? Ok, you can't account for the genuinely stupid, hard of thinking, or ideologues who would vote Tory on a point of principle even if it was a Tory manifesto pledge to exterminate them and their entire families, but I still think that in a "normal" electoral cycle, England is going to vote Tory by default, and that only changes when voting Tory becomes unconscionable for enough of the English electorate for it to actually make a Labour win viable. I didn't vote Labour in 1997 because I had no enthusiasm at all for Blair and his Tory-lite crap, and I always thought the man himself had zero substance to him, a completely fabricated public persona, I thought he was downright sinister rather than charismatic, but I could understand other people's enthusiasm for it after 18 years of the fucking Tories, and the perception that Blair had chased away the old image of Labour being utterly beholden to the Unions. This time, I sense no such enthusiasm at all for Starmer, and it's almost entirely a case of "get the fucking Tories out", so again, that doesn't diminish my underlying impression that England votes Tory by default, and Labour when they are in the huff with the Tories. In every election after 1955 and before 2019, the combined vote for Labour and the Liberal Democrats (or whoever they were before) has exceeded the Tory vote. Without FPTP, even Thatcher would never have had a majority to govern alone. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Highlandmagar Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 22 hours ago, Dan Steele said: 'This country is a better place to live now than it was in 2010,' Sunak says'. Fucking deluded. It has certainly got better for him and his bank balance. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jedi2 Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 19 hours ago, Cheese said: Back to fraudulently bald status. And good to see him in a car that doesn't comply with the LEZ, while in...the LEZ. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peil Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 19 hours ago, Cheese said: Back to fraudulently bald status. You'd think the SNP would have steered clear of associating with expensive motor vehicles 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 8 minutes ago, Jedi2 said: And good to see him in a car that doesn't comply with the LEZ, while in...the LEZ. Why doesn't it comply with LEZ? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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