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Granny Danger

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4 hours ago, Freedom Farter said:

I think this is what a protest of P&B’s Platinum members would look like if we marched on @Div’s house looking for a demand for shared hot tub rights.

 

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The make up of the Scottish Parliament in a couple of years is very interesting.

 

Obviously an awful lot can change in the next 22 months, but on current polling averages you’re going to have a scenario where both the SNP and Labour are on the mid-40’s in terms of seat numbers (either could come out slightly ahead or it might even be a dead heat), the Conservatives will get around 20, and the Greens, Lib Dems and Reform will all be in the mid single digits.

 

What that would mean in practical terms is that neither Swinney nor Sarwar would be able to command majority support of the house by working with just the Greens and Lib Dems, so they’d have to either work with the Tories or with each other.

 

Current polling has the SNP losing around 20 seats in 2026 (around 40 of their 62 constituencies are projected to fall to Labour, but they’ll get about half of those seats back through the list). I think Swinney will be pretty happy if he can cut that to 10 losses and comfortably stay as the largest party and govern with confidence-and-supply support from the Greens and Lib Dems.

Edited by JS_FFC
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1 hour ago, JS_FFC said:

The make up of the Scottish Parliament in a couple of years is very interesting.

 

Obviously an awful lot can change in the next 22 months, but on current polling averages you’re going to have a scenario where both the SNP and Labour are on the mid-40’s in terms of seat numbers (either could come out slightly ahead or it might even be a dead heat), the Conservatives will get around 20, and the Greens, Lib Dems and Reform will all be in the mid single digits.

 

What that would mean in practical terms is that neither Swinney nor Sarwar would be able to command majority support of the house by working with just the Greens and Lib Dems, so they’d have to either work with the Tories or with each other.

 

Current polling has the SNP losing around 20 seats in 2026 (around 40 of their 62 constituencies are projected to fall to Labour, but they’ll get about half of those seats back through the list). I think Swinney will be pretty happy if he can cut that to 10 losses and comfortably stay as the largest party and govern with confidence-and-supply support from the Greens and Lib Dems.

1. A lot will happen over the next two years, particularly with people seeing little or no benefit of Labour U.K. government.

2. It is possible to govern without any sort of agreement.  Propose policies that you believe are the right ones and leave to the other parties to oppose/abstain/vote down.  It’s only a problem if they work collectively to vote something down but that can be turned into a huge political win.

There is no doubt that there’s a need to be circumspect with the policies you introduce as a minority with no formal agreements in place.

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1 hour ago, Granny Danger said:

1. A lot will happen over the next two years, particularly with people seeing little or no benefit of Labour U.K. government.

2. It is possible to govern without any sort of agreement.  Propose policies that you believe are the right ones and leave to the other parties to oppose/abstain/vote down.  It’s only a problem if they work collectively to vote something down but that can be turned into a huge political win.

There is no doubt that there’s a need to be circumspect with the policies you introduce as a minority with no formal agreements in place.

1. Yes, a lot can certainly change. The Labour government in London may not be popular by then which could hand the SNP a clear win. Equally, we could see further SNP scandals and/or the Starmer government doing well and Labour could win comfortably. But on the very early indications, the most plausible scenario at the moment is that the two parties get very similar numbers of seats (mid 40’s) with Labour are the very slight favourite to be the largest party.

 

2. The biggest problem you face is persuading others into supporting your budgets and confidence votes. Remember that six Scottish elections have produced:

 

- One outright majority.

- One minority government that was very close to a majority 

- Three coalitions (One of which collapsed mid Parliament leaving the SNP very close to a majority)

- One proper minority 

 

The scenario I outlined would be very close to the 2007-2011 Parliament. In that Parliament Salmond worked with both the Greens and Annabel Goldie’s Conservatives to get stuff done so I can be achieved but it would have been very easy for the opposition parties to vote down that government whenever they felt like it. 

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Scotland playing rugby test against Chile. Commentator makes  reference to the famous, old Estadio Nacional. Didn't elaborate on the main reason for its fame/notoriety. I don't expect sports commentators to engage in digressions on Fascist politics, but maybe he should have avoided any specific reference to the site of appalling atrocities.

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38 minutes ago, Thane of Cawdor said:

Scotland playing rugby test against Chile. Commentator makes  reference to the famous, old Estadio Nacional. Didn't elaborate on the main reason for its fame/notoriety. I don't expect sports commentators to engage in digressions on Fascist politics, but maybe he should have avoided any specific reference to the site of appalling atrocities.

Many years ago I worked beside a Chilean who was asked by a friend to identify a family member there.  The friend could not go himself for fear of being arrested.

Without going into graphic detail the guy described what he saw; said he barely slept or ate for three days after.

 

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55 minutes ago, Thane of Cawdor said:

Scotland playing rugby test against Chile. Commentator makes  reference to the famous, old Estadio Nacional. Didn't elaborate on the main reason for its fame/notoriety. I don't expect sports commentators to engage in digressions on Fascist politics, but maybe he should have avoided any specific reference to the site of appalling atrocities.

He should have pointed out the disgrace of the Scottish international football team playing a friendly versus Chile there in 1977.  A horrendous decision by the then SFA at a time when a number of Chileans were forced to flee their country, with some families settling in this area.

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1 hour ago, O'Kelly Isley III said:

He should have pointed out the disgrace of the Scottish international football team playing a friendly versus Chile there in 1977.  A horrendous decision by the then SFA at a time when a number of Chileans were forced to flee their country, with some families settling in this area.

Adam McNaughtan wrote the song "Blood upon the grass" about it. 

This was after Rolls Royce workers at Hillingdon downed tools rather than work on engines destined for Chile. 

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8 minutes ago, tamthebam said:

Adam McNaughtan wrote the song "Blood upon the grass" about it. 

This was after Rolls Royce workers at Hillingdon downed tools rather than work on engines destined for Chile. 

I would recommend the book "Pinochet in Piccadilly" by Andy Beckett for anyone wanting to read more about this.

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  • 4 weeks later...
1 hour ago, doulikefish said:

Gers figures today and they hardly get a mention due to everyone basically knowing they are a pile of shite 

Give them time. There's always a couple of accounts who return to declare them cast-iron evidence that Scotland is a bigger basket case than Somalia.

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  • 2 weeks later...

It’s not as bad as it sounds.  This is over five years so when you take account of the cumulative effect it’s only 10% each year.

Thames Water says it needs 59% bill rise to survive

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx2lgl9kypno

Meanwhile:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/jun/30/in-charts-how-privatisation-drained-thames-waters-coffers


IMG_0039.thumb.jpeg.6221c49075aa44e70ebde44e7e6f185a.jpeg

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5 minutes ago, Granny Danger said:

It’s not as bad as it sounds.  This is over five years so when you take account of the cumulative effect it’s only 10% each year.

Thames Water says it needs 59% bill rise to survive

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx2lgl9kypno

Meanwhile:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/jun/30/in-charts-how-privatisation-drained-thames-waters-coffers


IMG_0039.thumb.jpeg.6221c49075aa44e70ebde44e7e6f185a.jpeg

Remember that's a real term rise they're talking about, so when you add inflation it'll be more. 

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  1. Arrest all involved, including John Major.
  2. Seize all assets.
  3. ???
  4. No profit, as water's a fundamental necessity for life, you grotesque leeches.

Pretty reasonable IMO. Wonder what Sir Keef's idea is. I'm guessing it'll involve handing over a massive sum of cash to a failing private company though.

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1 hour ago, BFTD said:
  1. Arrest all involved, including John Major.
  2. Seize all assets.
  3. ???
  4. No profit, as water's a fundamental necessity for life, you grotesque leeches.

Pretty reasonable IMO. Wonder what Sir Keef's idea is. I'm guessing it'll involve handing over a massive sum of cash to a failing private company though.

The plan is simple. 

Nationalising now is out as the government would have to buy out the shareholders. 

So, wait until liquidation, buy all the assets for £1 and re-start it as The Thames Water.

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1 hour ago, scottsdad said:

The plan is simple. 

Nationalising now is out as the government would have to buy out the shareholders. 

So, wait until liquidation, buy all the assets for £1 and re-start it as The Thames Water.

The shareholders are largely institutions including pension funds, I reckon Labour would be reluctant to take another measure that would be presented in the Tory press as "robbing pensioners".

What Labour could do is make the existing pension system less of a grift for City wideboys.

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