Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[Michael W]

The schools are open across the UK, correct. It is also true that some areas  had a higher prevalence of the virus too before they went back, which must at least partly explain the regional differences. 

However, take one look at the amount of daily cases before the schools went back, and look again now. You can pinpoint exactly when they went back.

There are other factors involved as well, clearly, but with many reports showing that children and young adults are often asymptomatic, children are very high risk for spreading the virus. We also have this rules of six for gatherings with anything higher deemed unsafe, yet we're happy to put 30 children from different households in a room together six hours a day? They may well be distanced, but social distancing is not a silver bullet and its effectiveness diminishes over time spent in proximity. 

[D Angelo Barksdale]

Don't think we should be blaming the poors tbh.

[ICTChris]

10 minutes ago, Ingo ohne Flamingo said:

Getting fed up of seeing the schools take the blame here. Looking at this map, are people suggesting that Highland, Falkirk, Stirling, Perthshire, Clackmannanshire, Aberdeenshire etc don't have the schools open? This map covers positive tests in the last 7 days. It is obvious it is places like Glasgow and the Lanarkshires that are the problem in Scotland, areas that host scotlands more deprived areas and areas where law abiding is lower. Also worth adding that Glasgow and the Lanarkshires are more densely populated.

Worth looking at the whole 4 nations, again the last 7 days. Look at the Southern half of England, are the schools still shut there?

There's no doubt there has been transmission within schools, but the schools are regulated and behaviours morontrolled therefore it's not that high - Track and Trace is proving this. Considering most livingrooms in Scotland can only fit 2 sofas and a TV Cabinet, having 8 people in there from 3 households there was no danger people could socially distance. I had family and friends over in the last few months and it was impossible to stay distant. Those visits didn't involve alcohol so you can only imagine what a house party with even 8 would be like, then you'll have the usual kitchen party and people using the same toilets, towels etc etc.

I think the issue is that in places where the virus is prevelant then schools have the potential to cause an increased spead.  So in the Western Isles reopening schools isn't an issue because they don't have any cases but in Glasgow, for example, there is more of the virus about so schools have the potential to cause spread.

Also, there are plenty of deprived and densely populated areas in Scotland that aren't seeing spikes. 

[Ingo ohne Flamingo]

Just read this article on the Spectator from a Swedish Doctor in Stockholm https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-dangerous-is-covid-a-swedish-doctor-s-perspective/amp?__twitter_impression=true&fbclid=IwAR0-HKgjAjjc1oNwGPm4NR8xs10_3YrC1vGZ8nMzxsgoP2z-w2GEui_dUBM

 

I want to preface this article by stating that it is entirely anecdotal and based on my experience working as a doctor in the emergency room of one of the big hospitals in Stockholm, and on living as a citizen in Sweden. As many people know, Sweden is perhaps the country that has taken the most relaxed attitude towards the Covid pandemic. Unlike other countries, Sweden never went into complete lockdown. Non-essential businesses have remained open, people have continued to go to cafés and restaurants, children have remained in school, and very few people have bothered with face masks in public.

Covid hit Stockholm like a storm in mid-March. One day I was seeing people with appendicitis and kidney stones, the normal things you see in the emergency room. The next day all those patients were gone and the only thing coming into the hospital was Covid. Practically everyone who was tested had Covid, regardless of their presenting symptoms. People came in with a nosebleed and they had Covid. They came in with stomach pain and they had Covid.

 

Then, after a few months, all the Covid patients disappeared. It is now four months since the start of the pandemic, and I haven’t seen a single Covid patient in over a month. When I do test someone because they have a cough or a fever, the test invariably comes back negative. At the peak three months back, a hundred people were dying a day of Covid in Sweden, a country with a population of ten million. We are now down to around five people dying per day in the whole country, and that number continues to drop. Since people generally die around three weeks after infection, that suggests virtually no one is now being infected. If we assume around 0.5 per cent of those infected die (which I think is very generous, more on that later) that means three weeks back 1,000 people were getting infected per day in the whole country, which works out to a daily risk per person of getting infected of 1 in 10,000. And remember, the risk of dying is at the very most 1 in 200 if you actually do get infected. And that was three weeks ago. Basically, Covid is in all practical senses over and done with in Sweden. After four months.

In total Covid has killed under 6,000 people in a country of ten million. A country with an annual death rate of around 100,000 people. That makes Covid a mere blip in terms of its effect on mortality.

That is why it is nonsensical to compare Covid to other major pandemics, like the 1918 pandemic that killed tens of millions of people. Covid will never even come close to those numbers. And yet many countries have shut down their entire economies, stopped children going to school, and made large portions of their population unemployed in order to deal with this disease.

The media have been proclaiming that only a small percentage of the population have antibodies, and therefore it is impossible that herd immunity has developed. Well, if herd immunity hasn’t developed, where are all the sick people? Why has the rate of infection dropped so precipitously? Considering that most people in Sweden are leading their lives normally now, not socially distancing, not wearing masks, there should still be high rates of infection.

The reason we test for antibodies is because it is easy and cheap. Antibodies are in fact not the body’s main defence against virus infections. T-cells are. But T-cells are harder to measure than antibodies, so we don’t really do it clinically. It is quite possible to have T-cells that are specific for Covid and thereby make you immune to the disease, without having any antibodies. Personally, I think this is what has happened. Everybody who works in the emergency room where I work has had the antibody test. Very few actually have antibodies. This is in spite of being exposed to huge numbers of infected people, including at the beginning of the pandemic, before we realised how widespread Covid was, and when no one was wearing protective equipment.

I am not denying that Covid is awful for the people who do get really sick or for the families of the people who die, just as it is awful for the families of people who die of cancer, influenza, or an opioid overdose. But the size of the response in most of the world (not including Sweden) has been totally disproportionate to the size of the threat.

Sweden ripped the metaphorical band-aid off quickly and got the epidemic over and done with in a short amount of time, while the rest of the world has chosen to try to peel the band-aid off slowly. At present that means Sweden has one of the highest total death rates in the world. But Covid is over in Sweden. People have gone back to their normal lives and barely anyone is getting infected anymore. I am willing to bet that the countries that have shut down completely will see rates spike when they open up. If that is the case, then there won’t have been any point in shutting down in the first place, because all those countries are going to end up with the same number of dead at the end of the day anyway. Shutting down completely in order to decrease the total number of deaths only makes sense if you are willing to stay shut down until a vaccine is available. That could take years. No country is willing to wait that long.

Covid has at present killed less than 6,000 in Sweden. It is very unlikely that the number of dead will go above 7,000. In an average year 700 people die of influenza in Sweden. Does that mean Covid is ten times worse than influenza? No, because influenza has been around for centuries while Covid is completely new. In an average influenza year most people already have some level of immunity because they’ve been infected with a similar strain previously, or because they’re vaccinated. So it is quite possible, or in fact likely, that the case fatality rate for Covid is the same as for influenza, or only slightly higher, and that the entire difference we have seen is due to the complete lack of any immunity in the population at the start of this pandemic.

This conclusion makes sense of the Swedish fatality numbers – if we’ve reached a point where there is hardly any active infection going on anymore in Sweden, in spite of the fact that there is barely any social distancing happening, then that suggests at least 50 per cent of the population has been infected already and has developed immunity, which is five million people. This number is perfectly reasonable if we assume a reproductive number for the virus of two: If each person infects two new people within a five day period, and you start out with just one infected person in the country, then you will reach a point where several million are infected in just four months. If only 6,000 are dead out of five million infected, that works out to a case fatality rate of 0.12 per cent, roughly the same as regular old influenza, which no one is the least bit frightened of, and which we don’t shut down our societies for.

WRITTEN BYSebastian Rushworth

Sebastian Rushworth is a junior doctor in Stockholm, who studied medicine at the Karolinska Institute. This article originally appeared on his personal website.

[renton]

5 minutes ago, Michael W said:

The schools are open across the UK, correct. It is also true that some areas  had a higher prevalence of the virus too before they went back, which must at least partly explain the regional differences. 

However, take one look at the amount of daily cases before the schools went back, and look again now. You can pinpoint exactly when they went back.

There are other factors involved as well, clearly, but with many reports showing that children and young adults are often asymptomatic, children are very high risk for spreading the virus. We also have this rules of six for gatherings with anything higher deemed unsafe, yet we're happy to put 30 children from different households in a room together six hours a day? They may well be distanced, but social distancing is not a silver bullet and its effectiveness diminishes over time spent in proximity. 

Once it got into a class it would surely spread like wildfire. Surely then, to a test and trace exercise it'd look pretty obvious if you had 30 households all with one or more adult members showing symptoms and the only thing in common being a single school class?

[madwullie]

Bold claim of covid being over in Sweden there from the good doctor. He does know more than me tho, so gratz and of course gg to Sweden 

Edited September 22, 2020 by madwullie

[itzdrk]

10 hours ago, 8MileBU said:

Oh ok. Fair enough I suppose.

I’ve more faith in military rule than I do in any politician tbh.

Tbf you do buy jeans at Asda so this level of thinking is expected. 

[ICTChris]

29 minutes ago, Ingo ohne Flamingo said:

Getting fed up of seeing the schools take the blame here. Looking at this map, are people suggesting that Highland, Falkirk, Stirling, Perthshire, Clackmannanshire, Aberdeenshire etc don't have the schools open? This map covers positive tests in the last 7 days. It is obvious it is places like Glasgow and the Lanarkshires that are the problem in Scotland, areas that host scotlands more deprived areas and areas where law abiding is lower. Also worth adding that Glasgow and the Lanarkshires are more densely populated.

Worth looking at the whole 4 nations, again the last 7 days. Look at the Southern half of England, are the schools still shut there?

There's no doubt there has been transmission within schools, but the schools are regulated and behaviours morontrolled therefore it's not that high - Track and Trace is proving this. Considering most livingrooms in Scotland can only fit 2 sofas and a TV Cabinet, having 8 people in there from 3 households there was no danger people could socially distance. I had family and friends over in the last few months and it was impossible to stay distant. Those visits didn't involve alcohol so you can only imagine what a house party with even 8 would be like, then you'll have the usual kitchen party and people using the same toilets, towels etc etc.

I think the issue is that in places where the virus is prevelant then schools have the potential to cause an increased spead.  So in the Western Isles reopening schools isn't an issue because they don't have any cases but in Glasgow, for example, there is more of the virus about so schools have the potential to cause spread.

Also, there are plenty of deprived and densely populated areas in Scotland that aren't seeing spikes. 

[Billy Jean King]

It's the people coming out with "only want schools open so parents can get peace to watch daytime telly" brigade that gets me.

The vast majority of parents wants schools to remain open as it's by far the best mechanism for learning.

There are plenty teachers post on here and through them and the several teachers I know personally plus anecdotally via my son and other pupils in the family I have heard nothing but positive stuff since they reopened. Very few positive cases and basically the usual chancers using C19 to swing the lead.

Until there is confirmed evidence that schools are the main driving force behind the increase in cases they should remain operating as normal. So far there is no evidence to suggest otherwise.

[s_dog]

15 minutes ago, Ingo ohne Flamingo said:

Just read this article on the Spectator from a Swedish Doctor in Stockholm https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-dangerous-is-covid-a-swedish-doctor-s-perspective/amp?__twitter_impression=true&fbclid=IwAR0-HKgjAjjc1oNwGPm4NR8xs10_3YrC1vGZ8nMzxsgoP2z-w2GEui_dUBM

 

Hopefully they will continue to see low numbers and be the success story so many people seem to want, but right now this is just hugely premature. If you look at when Sweden had their peak, it was June/July (and it was far higher and longer than it's Nordic neighbours), elsewhere in Europe it was March/April. The rest of Europe is starting to see cases rise now, who's to say that in 2-3 months time Sweden won't see a similar rise?

Edited to add a link to the FT.com article showing graphs of the difference between Sweden & other European countries.

https://www.ft.com/content/5cc92d45-fbdb-43b7-9c66-26501693a371

Edited September 22, 2020 by s_dog

[Marshmallo]

8 minutes ago, Billy Jean King said:

It's the people coming out with "only want schools open so parents can get peace to watch daytime telly" brigade that gets me.

The vast majority of parents wants schools to remain open as it's by far the best mechanism for learning.

There are plenty teachers post on here and through them and the several teachers I know personally plus anecdotally via my son and other pupils in the family I have heard nothing but positive stuff since they reopened. Very few positive cases and basically the usual chancers using C19 to swing the lead.

Until there is confirmed evidence that schools are the main driving force behind the increase in cases they should remain operating as normal. So far there is no evidence to suggest otherwise.

Why can this not be achieved via blended learning?

[Marshmallo]

Also "ma wean goes tae school and husny goat covid!" isn't a great way to set policy impacting every single aspect of humanity and how we live our lives.

[Blootoon87]

I'm confused, I'm sure Toddisgod said this was over as a health crisis a month or two ago?

[Michael W]

30 minutes ago, renton said:

Once it got into a class it would surely spread like wildfire. Surely then, to a test and trace exercise it'd look pretty obvious if you had 30 households all with one or more adult members showing symptoms and the only thing in common being a single school class?

The biggest driver of infection seems to be indoor gatherings (which are now limited to six). No matter which way we paint it, that's exactly what a school class is. 

In theory, I guess it should spread through a class when a kid with the virus turns up, although close contact with a person testing covid positive doesn't always produce subsequent cases. Although if there are no symptoms (and adults don't always show them either) then we won't see subsequent recorded cases. I have difficulty understanding which percentage of cases seem to be asymptomatic becuaee reports vary hugely. I guess we've a big data quality issue in this area as other than those tested routinely due to their employment, no one is getting a test when they aren't showing symptoms. 

To be fair, schools seem to have been pretty good at isolating where a positive case has been identified, but having them in 5 days a week is sending an inconsistent message and is also accepting a degree of risk that, in my view, is not acceptable in a number of areas throughout the UK. 

Edited September 22, 2020 by Michael W

[D Angelo Barksdale]

Do pubs in England not shut at 11 anyway ? Seems pretty fucking pointless tbh, also Monday Night Football games kick off at 8.15 now. A good laugh as everyone watching in the boozer gets kicked out in the 86th minute.

[tamthebam]

I was on a bus yesterday, wearing my mask as is required. I went on the top deck as there's usually less people there.

A 50 something bam was sitting at the front with his mask pulled down, drinking an energy drink, coughing and sniffing, wiping his fingers everywhere. I was 2m away from this guy...

1) It did cross my mind to call him out about wearing a mask but cowardice won the day. Given there's likely to be more restrictions now I wish I had.

2) He seemed representative of the 15% a poster mentioned that don't give a f*ck. Some other folk got on and sat opposite this guy and if he did have Covid there's a good chance they were at risk of catching it. 

If more restrictions are put in place again will that get the message through to some folk or will they still not bother?

[Gaz]

25 minutes ago, Billy Jean King said:

The vast majority of parents wants schools to remain open as it's by far the best mechanism for learning.

There's plenty research that shows there are far better mechanisms of learning than school. However those come with massive logistical challenges that no-one has been able to solve as of yet. Not to mention that they're stuck in a time loop of having to fit around Victorian working patterns that don't exist to the same extent any more.

Edited September 22, 2020 by Gaz

[Billy Jean King]

Why can this not be achieved via blended learning?

For some, probably most, it can but you know as well as I do that a fair % will not give a flying fuk and for some with more "difficult" home circumstances it may be impossible. Kids learn best in school, until there is hard substantive evidence that schools are the main driver behind the 2nd wave they should remain as normal.

[Szamo's_Ammo]

26 minutes ago, Billy Jean King said:

It's the people coming out with "only want schools open so parents can get peace to watch daytime telly" brigade that gets me.

The vast majority of parents wants schools to remain open as it's by far the best mechanism for learning.

There are plenty teachers post on here and through them and the several teachers I know personally plus anecdotally via my son and other pupils in the family I have heard nothing but positive stuff since they reopened. Very few positive cases and basically the usual chancers using C19 to swing the lead.

Until there is confirmed evidence that schools are the main driving force behind the increase in cases they should remain operating as normal. So far there is no evidence to suggest otherwise.

^^^ Buries head further in the sand.

Yeah, let's wait a few months until you find a study which satisfies you rather than the readily available statistics that show Covid cases have surged since the schools reopened. That should work.

[welshbairn]

Meanwhile in Vicky's pet country who can do no wrong..

Quote

Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babis admitted Monday that his government had made a mistake when it eased restrictions aimed at containing coronavirus over the summer.

His mea culpa came as governments across Europe struggle with a second wave of Covid-19 infections following the holiday months in which the number of cases began rising sharply.

“Even I got carried away by the coming summer and the general mood. That was a mistake I don’t want to make again,” the billionaire populist said in a televised speech.
After fending off much of the pandemic earlier in the year with timely steps including mandatory face masks outdoors, the government lifted most measures before the summer holidays.

The Czech Republic registered a record high of 3,130 coronavirus cases last Thursday, almost matching the total for the whole of March, although testing capacity was low at the start of the pandemic.

Interior Minister Jan Hamacek said the country was now ranked second worst in the EU behind Spain in terms of daily case growth per 100,000 residents.

“The situation is serious. Experts say that if we exceed 120,000 new infections per month, we’ll start running out of hospital beds. We’ll do our best to prevent this,” he said.

Health Minister Adam Vojtech - a lawyer known for singing in the Czech version of the “Idol” series - announced his resignation earlier Monday.

He was immediately replaced with epidemiologist Roman Prymula, who has helped coordinate government measures to curb infections.