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The US Presidential election prediction thread


ICTChris

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2 minutes ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

Think they will call Wisconsin soon - Biden is 0.8% ahead with just 3% of votes to count.

Do they still have the rule that the loser can request a recount in a state with a less than one per cent margin? Trump will surely do that. 

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They still talk as though voting for Trump is a protest vote, and that Carlson interview earlier was on similar lines. It’s still pushing a narrative that poor Americans are voting for Trump because the big city guys don’t listen to them.

He’s the incumbent, he’s the one who has had 4 years to “listen” to these voters, put things into place for people and hasn’t, of anything he’s rolled back on policies that advantage them. 

They are voting on personality, they like Trump, they identify with his thinking and they don’t care what the policies are because they see him as being like them in his thinking and ideas. 

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12 minutes ago, CountyFan said:

Do they still have the rule that the loser can request a recount in a state with a less than one per cent margin? Trump will surely do that. 

Wisconsin has to be a full percentage point. Their Secretary of State (ultimately, the guy responsible for the state’s election) is Democrat also. 

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2 minutes ago, Jambomo said:

They still talk as though voting for Trump is a protest vote, and that Carlson interview earlier was on similar lines. It’s still pushing a narrative that poor Americans are voting for Trump because the big city guys don’t listen to them.

He’s the incumbent, he’s the one who has had 4 years to “listen” to these voters, put things into place for people and hasn’t, of anything he’s rolled back on policies that advantage them. 

They are voting on personality, they like Trump, they identify with his thinking and they don’t care what the policies are because they see him as being like them in his thinking and ideas. 

This fundamentally misunderstands the point that Carlson was making.

You're right, none of Trumps policies have fixed any of the issues in America. But he's still very clearly perceived as not being within the political establishment. People are looking at the way cable news channels and the press talk about Trump and it resonates with them, because the press use similar terms to talk about rural or small town folk in America. While Trump has earned this coverage, these people have not. They're watching their kids desert their hometowns, record levels of suicide, drug and alcohol abuse, de-industrialisation and life becoming harder and harder.

Trump hasn't done anything for them yet, but he's still the insurgent candidate when compared to Joe fucking Biden. And these people are always going to back the insurgent candidate. It's why if a Republican primary was held tomorrow, a Trump-esque figure would win it. Because while Trump didn't do anything for them, there's always the chance he might. The establishment Democrats have made it explicitly clear that they fucking hate these people and will never help them. They look down their noses at them and treat them with contempt.

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2 minutes ago, carpetmonster said:

Wisconsin has to be a full percentage point. Their Secretary of State (ultimately, the guy responsible for the state’s election) is Democrat also. 

Cheeseheids - a great bunch of lads.  

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