Russian invasion of Ukraine

[welshbairn]

42 minutes ago, Jedi said:

There is no 'win' for the West in the short to medium term. Reason being that with China in the Russian camp the West can't afford to impose sanctions on the Chinese economy to 'discourage them'. Far too much Western trade and money relies on China. Add in Europe needing at least 5 years minimum to wean itself off Russian oil and gas, and still having to buy from them in the meantime.

The only hope is Putin not expanding further into Moldova/the Baltics in the short term, due to sanctions and drain on resources in Ukraine. 

That's only a temporary pause, but the Iron Curtain is well and truly down again, and will dominate domestic and international politics for some time to come.

China's prosperity depends on a prosperous West buying their stuff, and Russia's depends on everything getting back to normal before Europe really does find new oil, gas and other raw material sources and the US is best pals with Venezuela again. I think Putin has really fucked up here, the West are holding most of the levers if this drags out. There will be short term pain but we're heading into summer.

[DiegoDiego]

The short term pain is actually medium term pain. It takes a long time to build out capacity. Counties can't just crank up the dial and export more oil. I fear the next three-five years are going to be pretty horrid regardless of how Ukraine sorts itself out. We started this crisis at a time of generational high inflation, f**k knows what's going to follow.

[Theroadlesstravelled]

Disappointing amount of war footage tbh. There was more filming of WW2 and the cameras back then were the size and weight of a wardrobe.

Modern journalism is vapid shite. Some reporter interviewing a random Ukrainian guy living in London isn’t coverage.

[welshbairn]

15 minutes ago, DiegoDiego said:

The short term pain is actually medium term pain. It takes a long time to build out capacity. Counties can't just crank up the dial and export more oil. I fear the next three-five years are going to be pretty horrid regardless of how Ukraine sorts itself out. We started this crisis at a time of generational high inflation, f**k knows what's going to follow.

It's bad, but nothing like as bad as it will be for Russia if they don't pull back and settle for a deal Ukraine can accept. Once new supply lines are sorted they won't be be keen to switch back to Russia even when things settle down. There's obviously a certain amount of bluff and playing chicken on both sides, but I think the West has the strongest hand, just hoping that Russia sees that and folds.

Edited March 11, 2022 by welshbairn

[Inanimate Carbon Rod]

3 hours ago, Sergeant Wilson said:

They'll probably just drive them along the road, nose to tail.

Just need to put the blue lights on and no siren. 

[Nkomo-A-Gogo]

https://www.rte.ie/news/primetime/2022/0310/1285699-russian-embassy-orwell-road-irish-government/

Thats quite an interesting read.

Before the war the Russian ambassador to Ireland was interviewed saying there was no intention to invade Ukraine, these claims were laughable etc.

Many people have called for the whole lot of them to be expelled after that but the Irish minister for foreign affairs said he has to keep diplomatic ties open. Im sure it got shared in here but someone drove their truck through the gate of the embassy here in Dublin.

Id actually rather keep this known liar in the seat rather than expel him as at least you know where you stand with the bare faced liar! 

 

[williemillersmoustache]

6 hours ago, Florentine_Pogen said:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/mar/10/is-priti-patel-vicious-or-stupid-its-a-fine-line-for-ukrainian-refugees

"You can only imagine the kompromat that Priti Patel must have on the prime minister. As international development secretary in Theresa May’s government, she had been sacked for going rogue with her own foreign policy. Her flight back to the UK from Kenya had been tracked every bit as closely as those made by Russian oligarchs today. That would have been the end of their career for most politicians. But not Priti Vacant. When Boris Johnson became prime minister, he promoted her to home secretary.

Then came the inquiry that found Patel guilty of breaking the ministerial code for bullying staff. That again should have been enough for instant dismissal. Instead The Suspect ordered colleagues to protect “The Prittster” at all costs. And so she survived; to bumble on with her characteristic mix of incompetence and viciousness. No more so than during the current war in Ukraine."

This paragraph is just as damning.

Quote

This was a start, said Yvette Cooper, the shadow home secretary. But why had it taken yet another urgent question to shame Patel into action at the dispatch box? And why was there still no clear humanitarian pathway for refugees without immediate family in the UK? For reasons best known to herself, Cooper went along with the security rhetoric. Almost as if Labour was terrified of being seen to be weak on immigration. Even though every other country in Europe was taking unlimited numbers of refugees without visas. And even though the majority of people in the UK are in favour of this country doing the same. Labour’s response is to be a bit nicer than the Tories, but not too much.

The fucking useless spavine half-tory arseholes. 

[Steven W]

Bombings in Western Ukraine yet another unwelcome development

[Bairnardo]

Vlad sacking generals isn't great. There will be no shortage of folk willing to do the job and try to prove themselves to him. The path to escalation.

[doulikefish]

7 minutes ago, Bairnardo said:

Vlad sacking generals isn't great. There will be no shortage of folk willing to do the job and try to prove themselves to him. The path to escalation.

Surprised it's taking this long for the sackings and no doubt taking around the back and put up against a wall to happen.

Western military leaders must be pissing themselves laughing at the Falkirkesque levels in the Russian military in this "special operation"

[Melanius Mullarkey]

Just now, doulikefish said:

Surprised it's taking this long for the sackings and no doubt taking around the back and put up against a wall to happen.

Western military leaders must be pissing themselves laughing at the Falkirkesque levels in the Russian military in this "special operation"

Wouldn’t surprise me if they signed Goodwillie tbh.

[BFTD]

@General dissaray's free, and he knows a safe pair of hands in Maxwell Blackpool.

[Benjamin_Nevis]

6 minutes ago, Bairnardo said:

Vlad sacking generals isn't great. There will be no shortage of folk willing to do the job and try to prove themselves to him. The path to escalation.

Sacking a load of generals is pleasing confirmation that he knows the campaign has turned into an absolute shambles. He obviously expected to roll Ukraine over in a week, the west would still be fucking about trying to formulate a response and he'd have been fine. Instead we're rolling towards 3 weeks, sanctions have been more severe than he probably expected, Russia is becoming an international pariah and his economy is going to be a total binfire before long. It's also probable the those replacing the generals he's sacked will be less experienced and less competent. Perhaps most worrying of all for Putin is that the great Russian military (*snigger*) has shown itself up on the world stage as an absolutely fucking tinpot outfit. His only genuine threat is nukes and if the state of the rest of his military hardware is anything to go by half of them probably won't even launch 

Of course the other possibility as you rightly point out is that some up and coming general will be so desperate to get up Vlad's arse, he'll use chemical/biological/some other nefarious weaponry to win at all costs.

[ICTChris]

8 hours ago, Welly boy said:

News in today Putin ‘sacks eight generals’ in anger at slow progress in Ukraine invasion.

So maybe a sacked pissed off general could get the overthrow up and running. 

I doubt any Russian Army generals will overthrow Putin. No-one from the Army will.

Has it been confirmed that high level commanders have been replaced? I think it’s going to be very difficult for any reliable information to come out of Russia at the moment. Except to the CIA m, who clearly have a very high level informant given they predicted the invasion.

[Fullerene]

9 hours ago, deegee said:

Looking back to the period between 1945 until 1989, it is incredible to think a land war was avoided in Europe. As a child brought up in the 70s (and military “career” was a couple years in the TA on the mid 80’s), it was thought inevitable that we’d have some sort of nuclear war.

Even the Yugoslavian/ Balkan’s War was brought about by the passing of Tito and was an ethnic civil war with barely much input by the Soviets or the West from memory. 
This current conflict is “different gravy” and is probably the most serious threat to a full scale war and possible Armageddon since Cuba, I guess?  With any luck there’s a chat going on in some African cafe between Russian and American embassy staff, to ensure Putin “stands down” one way or another!

The great thing about the European Union is that it dramatically reduced the number of mad dictators in Europe who would feel the need to go to war with their neighbours.

Mad dictators are like that.

[doulikefish]

What's left of the big sitting duck convoy has finally fanned out is being reported

One of the new generals is a military genius

[Left Back]

4 minutes ago, doulikefish said:

What's left of the big sitting duck convoy has finally fanned out is being reported

One of the new generals is a military genius

Maybe he’s just watching the western news.  Wait until he realises it was a false flag report.

Edited March 11, 2022 by Left Back

[ICTChris]

Video from Kherson.

 

Apparently the guy speaking is a local table tennis coach, he sounds like a revolutionary.

[Fullerene]

8 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

Video from Kherson.

 

Apparently the guy speaking is a local table tennis coach, he sounds like a revolutionary.

^^^ Matthew Syed likes this.

[ICTChris]

Putin has said that they will use "volunteers" from the Middle East in the war.  They are also allegedly trying to mobilise volunteers from Dagestan, offering large salaries to sign up.

None of this suggests great levels of preparedness from the Russian Army.