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Final positions, playoffs and such...


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14 minutes ago, jagsfan57 said:

Think our points gap is a bit false as Morton and Airdrie have games in hand. We are also down to the bare bones of the squad - 7 players out yesterday due to injury. A few of those won’t be back this season. We won yesterday due ICT’s inability to create much, although we have shored up defensively in recent weeks.

I think if we avoid defeat against the Pars on Saturday coming then that puts any notion of them overtaking us more or less to bed - 8 points ahead with 4 games is too much for a team who aren’t exactly consistent. I’d then say it’s very unlikely that both Airdrie and Morton make up the ground as well, especially as they’re playing each other this weekend. 

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40 minutes ago, oneteaminglasgow said:

I think if we avoid defeat against the Pars on Saturday coming then that puts any notion of them overtaking us more or less to bed - 8 points ahead with 4 games is too much for a team who aren’t exactly consistent. I’d then say it’s very unlikely that both Airdrie and Morton make up the ground as well, especially as they’re playing each other this weekend. 

I don’t think Dunfermline have been inconsistent recently. I think they are actually the form team over 4, 6 and 8 games and top 3 over the last 10. 

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1 hour ago, jagsfan57 said:

I don’t think Dunfermline have been inconsistent recently. I think they are actually the form team over 4, 6 and 8 games and top 3 over the last 10. 

The fact that they're the form team over four and six games, but only fourth over five games, suggests that no team in this league is consistent (except Arbroath).

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47 minutes ago, Pie Of The Month said:

It's quite a take that anything about the position of a team that have remained 3rd for 6 months or 25 games straight without moving up or down is false.

I said the points gap was false. But let’s say Airdrie win their games in hand and beat us, they are only 1 point behind.(or ahead depending on our result with Raith and whoever they are playing).If we lose to Dunfermline, Morton beat Airdrie and win their game in hand, they are only 3 behind. I don’t think we are secure in 3rd place just yet.

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37 minutes ago, jagsfan57 said:

I said the points gap was false. But let’s say Airdrie win their games in hand and beat us, they are only 1 point behind.(or ahead depending on our result with Raith and whoever they are playing).If we lose to Dunfermline, Morton beat Airdrie and win their game in hand, they are only 3 behind. I don’t think we are secure in 3rd place just yet.

When your argument is based on 3 games going the way of a team and still not overtaking us it would suggest the gap is not in fact false.

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3 hours ago, oneteaminglasgow said:

I think if we avoid defeat against the Pars on Saturday coming then that puts any notion of them overtaking us more or less to bed - 8 points ahead with 4 games is too much for a team who aren’t exactly consistent. I’d then say it’s very unlikely that both Airdrie and Morton make up the ground as well, especially as they’re playing each other this weekend. 

I said before yesterday that if we won our home games we'd finish third. Given we have 3 tricky away games remaining (albeit the DU game may be a dead rubber for one/both of us) I think anything we can get from the games at EEP and Starks are welcome. In reality I think 5 points from here would be enough for third 

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59 minutes ago, Pie Of The Month said:

When your argument is based on 3 games going the way of a team and still not overtaking us it would suggest the gap is not in fact false.

We’ll just need to wait and see and hope that I am wrong.

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If we finish 2nd I hope to hell the Pars don't finish in the playoffs.....
Won every game against them in the league and it would be classic Rovers for them to beat us in the playoff Semi final.
They are 'due us one'........all but the 3-0 cup game at East End have been close.
Mon Morton and Airdrie!!

 

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No one is catching Partick in 3rd.

Fully expecting the final playoff space to go to the last weekend though.

From a Morton perspective, we looked more like ourselves on Sat so I'm hopeful we can give it a right go. We probably need to win in Airdrie next week. ( hopefully Arbroath can pick up something tomorrow too). At least it's in our own hands, 6 wins and its job done!

Will twist and turn every week no doubt.

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image.png.c6ed287a8a2fb694df1f3d06656ceff4.png

Last week's chart (top) vs this week's. Pretty much the worst week possible for Airdrie with everyone around them winning.

For safety, 41 points is the number which has a >50% chance of being safe with 43 remaining the >90% chance figure, however there was a 1/1000 scenario where a team finished 9th with 45 so the absolute number is 46. The lowest total to stay up was 37

For promotion playoffs, 51 points will get you in more often than not with 53 being a > 90% chance. The highest total to miss out was 54.

 

 

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49 minutes ago, Fuctifano said:

image.png.c6ed287a8a2fb694df1f3d06656ceff4.png

Last week's chart (top) vs this week's. Pretty much the worst week possible for Airdrie with everyone around them winning.

For safety, 41 points is the number which has a >50% chance of being safe with 43 remaining the >90% chance figure, however there was a 1/1000 scenario where a team finished 9th with 45 so the absolute number is 46. The lowest total to stay up was 37

For promotion playoffs, 51 points will get you in more often than not with 53 being a > 90% chance. The highest total to miss out was 54.

 

 

Bloody hell I'd have taken that 3 weeks ago

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Uphill battle for us to make the playoffs now. Played well on Saturday but we've definitely got the toughest run-in. 11 points from these last 6 games, with our only 2 home games being against Dundee United and Raith, is a tough ask but a win on Saturday would change everything.

Said the same last season and only missed out on goal difference, so who knows.

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Next 2 games are pivotal for us. Take 4 points from Airdrie and Ayr and we're in with a chance but lose to either and it gets a lot more difficult.

Our squad is running on empty really. There are players all over the park looking heavy-legged and 3 games in 8 days is going to be a killer.

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This reminds me of 2016/17 when we went on a good bit of form and narrowly missed out on 4th. We were newly promoted back then too. It would add some good spice to finish 4th but I'm just happy to stay in the league after such a torrid time with injuries. 

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Next two weeks will have a massive bearing on the relegation play off place.

With ICT likely to beat Arbroath and us playing United the gap could be 1 point going into the game at Hampden the following week. 

Could see us sitting 9th with an away trip to Dunfermline (the form team) the following week.

Had pretty much resigned myself to League 1 towards the end of the Veldman era, but we are made of sterner stuff now. At least I thought so until Morton brushed us aside on Saturday.

Ayr were very poor the other week when we beat them but then turned over Airdrie.

Honestly no idea what the final positions will be but I fancy more twists and turns before the end.

Strap yourselves in!!

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If we can do enough in the next two games to pretty much rule out finishing in the bottom two then I’ll be delighted. We’ve been so inconsistent under Brown but find ourselves top of the form charts in the last ten games which demonstrates how mental this league is. If we carry on with the form we are on then we should be comfortably finishing 5th with probably leaving ourselves too much to do for a playoff spot. I think if we managed to find ourselves in the top four then it’d be an even bigger robbery than finishing second last year and you’d imagine Morton would feel pretty hard done by if they missed out. 

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50 minutes ago, D'Jaffo said:

you’d imagine Morton would feel pretty hard done by if they missed out. 

Yeah, probably. Took a 16 game unbeaten run to earn a 7 point cushion in the playoff places, then after the following 4 games we found ourselves sitting 2 points outside them. Harsh league, but it's a 36 game-long season for everyone. Whoever wins at Airdrie on Saturday takes it I reckon.

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