When will indyref2 happen?

[MONKMAN]

1 hour ago, dirty dingus said:

There is probably 25% hardcore Yoons and 35% hardcore Nats with the rest needing all the boring "things will be fine" in an Indy Scotland arguments fixed in their eyes. 

It's about 45% either way with 10% that will ultimately decide the outcome.

[strichener]

1 hour ago, Henderson to deliver ..... said:

Perfectly cromulant word m9.

It's really not.  Everyone can vote differently on the list if the choose which is not gaming the system but exercising their choice.

If the system was not intended to operate in that manner then they could stop parties just standing in the list when the don't stand any candidates in a region.  It would certainly stop the Greens from gaming the system. 

[GTG_03]

1 hour ago, MONKMAN said:

It's about 45% either way with 10% that will ultimately decide the outcome.

I wouldn't say there's 45 percent definitely on either side. Around 25/30 percent who are entrenched in their view either side. It's the middle 40-50 percent who are on the fence or soft noes/ayes that will decide it. 

Nutters like alba/wings demanding udi or a vote during a pandemic are idiots. It's guaranteed to fail. 

If sturgeon/SNP continue showing leadership and go about their business competently while Boris and his band of buffoons do the opposite then support will creep up.

I reckon a referendum will be legislated for 2024 but will be blocked by UKGOV and will end up in court. 2024 I reckon will be the year the union changes forever, not necessarily with the result I'd like.

[D Angelo Barksdale]

26 minutes ago, strichener said:

It's really not.  Everyone can vote differently on the list if the choose which is not gaming the system but exercising their choice.

If the system was not intended to operate in that manner then they could stop parties just standing in the list when the don't stand any candidates in a region.  It would certainly stop the Greens from gaming the system. 

I don't think you understand what proportional representation means m9 ?

[strichener]

1 hour ago, Henderson to deliver ..... said:

I don't think you understand what proportional representation means m9 ?

In a two vote system where you may vote for different parties with each vote, you don't get proportional representation.  You only get a truly proportional system if you use a single vote.  Allowing two votes and parties to stand on the list only is not a true representation of proportionality.  Hence why you have the greens getting 8 MSPs for 220k votes and the Lib Dems getting none for 137k.

[wirez]

7 hours ago, Pato said:

Do you have a name for yourselves? Mind after indyref folk were cutting about with 'the 45' stickers on their cars and that. What's the alba equivalent?

 

Dunno. It is called supporting independence. Try it out.

Sticker on a motor? OMG, check them...what a riddy!

Near18,000 posts in what? 2 and a half years?

An empty life.

[craigkillie]

2 hours ago, strichener said:

In a two vote system where you may vote for different parties with each vote, you don't get proportional representation.  You only get a truly proportional system if you use a single vote.  Allowing two votes and parties to stand on the list only is not a true representation of proportionality.  Hence why you have the greens getting 8 MSPs for 220k votes and the Lib Dems getting none for 137k.

I could have sworn the Lib Dems actually had 4 MSPs.

[strichener]

6 hours ago, craigkillie said:

I could have sworn the Lib Dems actually had 4 MSPs.

Not from the list which is where the numbers I quoted were from.  The point stands if you look at overall votes.  The lib Dems had  circa 30% more votes than the greens for 50% less seats.

[GordonS]

20 minutes ago, strichener said:

Not from the list which is where the numbers I quoted were from.  The point stands if you look at overall votes.  The lib Dems had  circa 30% more votes than the greens for 50% less seats.

That's a preposterous argument to make. You must know that.

You can't combine constituency and regional votes like they weren't the votes of a single person.

[GordonS]

8 hours ago, strichener said:

In a two vote system where you may vote for different parties with each vote, you don't get proportional representation.  You only get a truly proportional system if you use a single vote.  Allowing two votes and parties to stand on the list only is not a true representation of proportionality.  Hence why you have the greens getting 8 MSPs for 220k votes and the Lib Dems getting none for 137k.

No, what really comes into play there is two things. First, with 7 seats being allocated on the list then obviously you need a certain share of the vote to get any of them. In practice it's about 5.5%. That the Lib Dems got 5.06% and the Greens got 8.12% is why there's a big disparity.

Also, the Lib Dems would have got someone off the list in Highlands and Islands if they hadn't won two constituency seats there, as they came third with 11.2%, beating Labour and the Greens who both got list members; in Mid Scotland & Fife, where they got 7.4% but won a constituency; and in Lothian, where they got 7.2% but won a constituency.

It's completely misleading to make the comparison you have done, because you're comparing apples with bricks. If the Lib Dems hadn't won constituencies then they'd have got at least 3, and probably 4, for their 137k votes. 

[Whitburn Vale]

17 hours ago, wirez said:

Aye okay. Pipe doon scrappy doo. It's a discussion forum. Do you just want to read what you can nod along with?

Bigots and nonces? Terrible patter.

I gave my second vote to a list party that advocates independence. That's it. It ended up in the same bin as the one in my area with all the SNP list votes.

 

 

So did I on the 2nd vote,while I voted Green with my "vote Green Bella Caledonia" t-shirt on...........

[SandyCromarty]

14 hours ago, dirty dingus said:

The problem with Alba is the same as Rise, too many clowns with personal grievances where they can't see the woods for the trees.  I used to go to all HoF/AUOB rallies and follow the more "interesting" Indy folk  online. Though I chucked being a member of the SNP I know that they are the key to getting us out of the Union and it is frustrating seeing them being cautious it's the only way we will see the "silent majority" come onboard. There is probably 25% hardcore Yoons and 35% hardcore Nats with the rest needing all the boring "things will be fine" in an Indy Scotland arguments fixed in their eyes. UDI or a quick ref won't work. I think they need to push for a date in  Autumn 23 and let Bozo fail in the meantime.

Yes the SNP is the Independence vehicle for us getting there.

[strichener]

5 hours ago, GordonS said:

No, what really comes into play there is two things. First, with 7 seats being allocated on the list then obviously you need a certain share of the vote to get any of them. In practice it's about 5.5%. That the Lib Dems got 5.06% and the Greens got 8.12% is why there's a big disparity.

Also, the Lib Dems would have got someone off the list in Highlands and Islands if they hadn't won two constituency seats there, as they came third with 11.2%, beating Labour and the Greens who both got list members; in Mid Scotland & Fife, where they got 7.4% but won a constituency; and in Lothian, where they got 7.2% but won a constituency.

It's completely misleading to make the comparison you have done, because you're comparing apples with bricks. If the Lib Dems hadn't won constituencies then they'd have got at least 3, and probably 4, for their 137k votes. 

You are simply defending the Scottish implementation of D'Hondt.  The D'Hondt method is one of the least proportional  among the proportional systems.

The simply fact is that in a system designed to be proportionate and using 2 individual votes it only works if everyone voting for the winning constituent party votes the same with their second vote and doesn't vote in the constituency if their party of choice is not standing.  According to Henderson, anything else is gaming the system.

Edited May 23, 2021 by strichener

[Lurkst]

That's me sold...

[Suspect Device]

Hopefully we get independence soon. I can't wait to see if Scotland can win the Eurovision song contest.

[ICTJohnboy]

17 minutes ago, Lurkst said:

That's me sold...

 

Absolutely.

Now we know how much they love Scotland is bound to see a nation collectively unite to save the union.

f**k off.

[Joey Jo Jo Junior Shabadoo]

Probably worried we’ll bring back the Stuarts. 

[wirez]

14 minutes ago, Joey Jo Jo Junior Shabadoo said:

Probably worried we’ll bring back the Stuarts. 

Greeeeeeetings

[Salt n Vinegar]

I know that there are those who think that the sun shines out of the rear ends of our divinely appointed Heads of State, and their sundry offspring, (except for the odd one or two who turn out to be not so divine after all - almost behaving like mere mortals) but as far as I'm concerned having these delusional establishment figureheads stick their oars into the independence debate is fine. 

After all, who can argue against the views of those who hold office because a god says so?

[Granny Danger]

If the royals really want to stick their oar in I suggest they send Andrew to do a televised debate with Nicola Sturgeon.