The Big Relegation Thread

[Jamie_B]

For that to happen we’d need to find some home form, something we’ve just not had since pretty much pre covid.

[RandomGuy.]

8 minutes ago, Jamie_B said:

For that to happen we’d need to find some home form, something we’ve just not had since pretty much pre covid.

Sure 18/19 was the last season we won more than 5 league games at home. 

[mizfit]

We’re doomed lads. We’ve delayed the inevitable for 2 seasons. I’m just enjoying the vibes and hoping we can get Arbroath away next year. 

[Archie McSquackle]

2 hours ago, RandomGuy. said:

Too early for this thread IMO, but aye its looking a bit grim.

Would say St Mirren already look safe tbh, the drop off needed for them to be relegated is too big to be realistic. Tempted to say Motherwell is the same.

Thread will be all about us for a while.

Next five games are...

Livingston (H), Aberdeen (A), Motherwell (H), St Mirren (A), Kilmarnock (H)

Need to be getting 8+ points wise from that run

Motherwell had a strong start and, based on 36 points roughly representing safety, I remember thinking we're a quarter then a third of the way to safety. We then stopped and managed to briefly be bottom on 20 points in early February. 

On that basis I'm not confident of declaring anyone is safe at this point although St. Mirren and Motherwell certainly don't look as though they're going to be troubling the relegation battle. 

[DeeTillEhDeh]

2 hours ago, RandomGuy. said:

Too early for this thread IMO, but aye its looking a bit grim.

Would say St Mirren already look safe tbh, the drop off needed for them to be relegated is too big to be realistic. Tempted to say Motherwell is the same.

Thread will be all about us for a while.

Next five games are...

Livingston (H), Aberdeen (A), Motherwell (H), St Mirren (A), Kilmarnock (H)

Need to be getting 8+ points wise from that run

You easily end up with none.

[RandomGuy.]

4 minutes ago, Archie McSquackle said:

Motherwell had a strong start and, based on 36 points roughly representing safety, I remember thinking we're a quarter then a third of the way to safety. We then stopped and managed to briefly be bottom on 20 points in early February. 

On that basis I'm not confident of declaring anyone is safe at this point although St. Mirren and Motherwell certainly don't look as though they're going to be troubling the relegation battle. 

St Mirren performance wise just look too good for it, especially if they keep Robinson.

Motherwell a bit ropier but if anything you shouldve been struggling now. Youll likely only get stronger.

2 minutes ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

You easily end up with none.

Genuinely worried we might break records this season.

Think our 21pt tally in 01/02 is still the worst any teams managed? If you ignore the 10pt deduction Gretna got that gave them 13pts.

A real struggle to know where we're picking 6/7 wins from.

[Sarto Mutiny]

10 minutes ago, RandomGuy. said:

St Mirren performance wise just look too good for it, especially if they keep Robinson.

Motherwell a bit ropier but if anything you shouldve been struggling now. Youll likely only get stronger.

Genuinely worried we might break records this season.

Think our 21pt tally in 01/02 is still the worst any teams managed? If you ignore the 10pt deduction Gretna got that gave them 13pts.

A real struggle to know where we're picking 6/7 wins from.

You can't possibly we worse than we were last season

[RandomGuy.]

1 minute ago, Sarto Mutiny said:

You can't possibly we worse than we were last season

We'll see.

[Hendo]

4 hours ago, RandomGuy. said:

Too early for this thread IMO, but aye its looking a bit grim.

Would say St Mirren already look safe tbh, the drop off needed for them to be relegated is too big to be realistic. Tempted to say Motherwell is the same.

Thread will be all about us for a while.

Next five games are...

Livingston (H), Aberdeen (A), Motherwell (H), St Mirren (A), Kilmarnock (H)

Need to be getting 8+ points wise from that run

From the highlights, you looked ok yesterday, but defended both goals poorly. 

I still think you arent as bad as you make out and those home games look winnable.

[Jamie_B]

3 minutes ago, Hendo said:

From the highlights, you looked ok yesterday, but defended both goals poorly. 

I still think you arent as bad as you make out and those home games look winnable.

I felt we were doing fine up til the half hour mark. Hibs' playing out from the back then trying to launch it into space behind our defence for their pacey players to run on to wasn't working particularly well IMO, and you could hear the discontent from the stands growing.

We then concede a really soft goal from a second ball at a set piece, and that's pretty much that. We don't have enough of an attacking threat, especially playing May as a lone striker. I assume we'd worked all week on this shape and set up with the plan of playing Kane through the middle, which is a workable option, but it would never work with May there after Kane dropped out on Friday.

We desperately need to find a formula with the players we have to create more quality chances. There's no reason why Kane/Clark/Wright/May/Jephcott can't get half a dozen goals each minimum this season. Cut out the silly shit at the back and we can at least keep ourselves in touch at the bottom without getting cut totally adrift. At the moment, however, that seems a long way off.

[RandomGuy.]

9 minutes ago, Hendo said:

From the highlights, you looked ok yesterday, but defended both goals poorly. 

I still think you arent as bad as you make out and those home games look winnable.

We have flashes of good, but ultimately we cant score, we cant defend, and we're conceding from set plays regularly.

Add in an inexperienced manager who seems to be losing faith in his squad, and a squad littered with players who've chucked it under a previous manager, and its just stinking.

[Sarto Mutiny]

2 hours ago, RandomGuy. said:

We'll see.

You have a goalkeeper, so you're one up on us already

[capt_oats]

4 hours ago, RandomGuy. said:

Would say St Mirren already look safe tbh, the drop off needed for them to be relegated is too big to be realistic. Tempted to say Motherwell is the same.

It'll be interesting to see how we react to our impending scuddings off Rangers and Celtic as by this time next week we'll have lost 3 on the bounce and thus far we've only lost 3 games in total under Kettlewell and none B2B.

Looking at it from a big picture POV we're sitting on 10 points after 5 games. If we're saying we need roughly 36 points to be safe then we're looking at gaining another 26+ points from 33 games - an average of 0.78 PPG minimum. For perspective that's a worse PPG average than Hammell had when we eventually launched him (Hammell's PPG average was 0.83 PPG) and at the very least Kettlewell's shown himself to be a competent enough manager.

Even an average of 1 point per game from now until GW 33 would have us on 38 points at the split.

That said, I wouldn't be making any definite guarantees as we've a thin squad and our bench of late has comprised a number of actual children but with long term injuries like Butcher, Biereth still to come back you'd hope that even if/when we regress to the mean as most of us are expecting we should still have enough about us to trundle our way to safety.

[FTOF]

31 minutes ago, RandomGuy. said:

We have flashes of good, but ultimately we cant score, we cant defend, and we're conceding from set plays regularly.

Add in an inexperienced manager who seems to be losing faith in his squad, and a squad littered with players who've chucked it under a previous manager, and its just stinking.

Add in the probability that you'll win at least one game at home against us.......................................

[RandomGuy.]

1 hour ago, Sarto Mutiny said:

You have a goalkeeper, so you're one up on us already

But we dont have a defence. Mitov the best performing keeper in the league yet still conceded the most goals.

Guess we'll find out if an awful defence is worse or better than an awful goalkeeper.

[Molotov]

It’s surely way too early to be posting in the relegation express thread?

No way as a Saints fan am I taking anything for granted until top 6 is secured. 

We should never forget the season Hibs fans were laughing at Hearts going down and then their own team proceeded to get relegated themselves. 

Were Hibs in 7th spot at the split that season? 
 

[Dons_1988]

5 minutes ago, Molotov said:

It’s surely way too early to be posting in the relegation express thread?

No way as a Saints fan am I taking anything for granted until top 6 is secured. 

We should never forget the season Hibs fans were laughing at Hearts going down and then their own team proceeded to get relegated themselves. 

Were Hibs in 7th spot at the split that season? 
 

No chance st Mirren get relegated. Clearly will accumulate more points than plenty teams and likely be top 6.

That hibs team was utterly mince and probably a bit arrogant due to the fact hearts were basically relegated before a ball was kicked. 

[RandomGuy.]

1 hour ago, capt_oats said:

Looking at it from a big picture POV we're sitting on 10 points after 5 games. If we're saying we need roughly 36 points to be safe.

Genuinely think 30pts could keep someone off bottom this season.

We're pretty much trying to reach 38pts while playing 6 games less than everyone else at this stage, which isnt great. So 36pts from 32 games if youre looking at my bizarre train of thought. To me thats 10 wins we need.

4 games v Celtic/Rangers which likely brings 0 wins?

So we need 10 wins from 28 games, and then 6 draws. So we can only lose 12 more games against non-OF sides over the rest of the season when we've already lost 3 from 4, the only one we avoided defeat in needed a 2 goal comeback and last minute equaliser. We've also not won more than 5 games at home in a season in about 5 years too, so youre looking at us losing half at most of our away games too.

Feels rare for teams to survive this kind of start. If we lose next week v Livingston, then we're approaching one of the worst starts to a season for decades.

[PSJ.84]

51 minutes ago, RandomGuy. said:

But we dont have a defence. Mitov the best performing keeper in the league yet still conceded the most goals.

Guess we'll find out if an awful defence is worse or better than an awful goalkeeper.

Not saying it’s wrong but 6.3 seems ridiculously high number only six games into the season, which tells all about our defence. We have played 4 of last seasons top 5 though. 

[Loki]

1 hour ago, RandomGuy. said:Feels rare for teams to survive this kind of start. If we lose next week v Livingston, then we're approaching one of the worst starts to a season for decades.

Apart from Ross County who do it every season.  Seven points already is going against the script.