Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[tamthebam]

5 hours ago, Elixir said:

Does Devi know there is still community transmission even in New Zealand, Australia, and Taiwan? And it is the height of summer in the southern hemisphere. It's going to be some laugh when winter returns and they're back in a four month Melbourne-esque prison setting over a few hundred cases.

To be fair being a prisoner is an Australian tradition.

[David W]

This sort of nonsense is why there should be a clear roadmap set out by the government in the near future. We can all accept deviation from that in exceptional circumstances (we've seen that with the more transmissible variant) but they should have a fair idea now about vaccine roll out, herd immunity and the like and what the path in the future should be.

It's literally dangerous for people's mental health having this constant back and forward from people who are known by the public as experts.

[Lyle Lanley]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/01/30/exclusive-social-distancing-may-have-remain-place-year/

Pretty depression read here.

Don't think most or near enough everyone will stand for this. 

[djchapsticks]

Jason Leitch, Devi Sridhar and any of these other rambling fantasists will ultimately be able to do f**k all to stop the end of restrictions. Their bleating about zero covid, things that may or may not come to pass and one year lockdowns will become background noise against the wall of experts in other areas such as finance, business and sociology whose voices will be overwhelmingly advising to open up again when the time is right and cases are low. Not to mention the public at large.

It's a very simple equation. Lockdowns will drive death and serious illness down to a low point and the ongoing vaccine programme will keep it there.

Only death and serious illness figures will matter. The overall infection numbers will naturally drop too but really, who actually gives a f**k about case numbers or infections if it's only going to give people, especially those will compromised immune systems, a very mild case of not feeling too well?

Folk like Leitch can feel their days in the spotlight coming to an end - I see it myself. A lot of small pharma companies I deal with came into a lot of money very quickly indeed last year and they are all beginning to forecast significant downturns in what they need in the coming quarters. They know their boom period (and believe me, it ha been an unprecedented boom period) is slowly coming to an end. Most pharma companies who provide DHSC overspill for covid testing are anticipating a much reduced need for test kits this year. I imagine DHSC (who I also deal with directly) will follow suit.

Edited January 31, 2021 by djchapsticks

[Theroadlesstravelled]

Person tests positive after receiving one dose of the vaccine and will self isolate.

He probably won’t get sick but he can pass it on to others who in turn might.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/30/politics/stephen-lynch-tests-positive-covid/index.html

[btb]

1 hour ago, Snafu said:

I need a hug.

tbf the Telegraph like most of the mainstream media are a bunch of miserable c**ts, there's an article below discussing should children be allowed to play outside during lockdown.

I've seen children out enjoying the snow during the lockdown, its very good for them and you would have to be a complete Arnold Rimmer to have any problem with that and Philipy them to the police.

 

But did you kick over their snowman?

[Paco]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/01/30/exclusive-social-distancing-may-have-remain-place-year/
Pretty depression read here.
Don't think most or near enough everyone will stand for this. 

That’s a depressing read, no doubt about it. I doubt the Telegraph have went to the effort of making up the paper. If that’s the advice the government are getting, it’s dreadful news. Genuinely dreadful.

Two key points though where they discuss how 25% of the population would still be vulnerable between vaccines not being 100% effective and people not taking it - the overwhelming majority of that number not taking it will be young, and at least not vulnerable. As will a large number of those getting ineffective vaccine, it won’t skew solely to the old and vulnerable. So the big scary number is already far lower then 25%. When the virus can only find about one in eight or one in ten people to infect, it’s already well on the way to tapering out. So what’s the big problem here? Some people will die in the interim period, obviously. That’s bad. But it certainly wouldn’t be at 1500 a day unless Covid has learned how to target those it can kill.

Additionally the ‘source’ outlines all the big scary numbers and basically says the vaccines will be shit, and then says social distancing may have to stay ‘until the end of the year’ as a result. At which stage a magic wand will be waved, presumably? What would’ve actually changed between the big scary scenario in April where virtually everyone most at risk has been vaccinated, and January 1st 2022 where they’re, er, still vaccinated?

[Ron Aldo]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/01/30/exclusive-social-distancing-may-have-remain-place-year/
Pretty depression read here.
Don't think most or near enough everyone will stand for this. 

I'm struggling to get my head round that.

If restrictions were lifted in February (which they obviously won't be) why would we be looking at our highest daily death totals if the majority of the vulnerable have been vaccinated by then?

Likewise, if theres a "gradual release" of restrictions why do 3 of the 4 graphs have deaths peaking at 2000+ a day in the summer? Last summer I don't think we even had 2000 cases a day never mind deaths, and that was without a vaccine.

[djchapsticks]

2 minutes ago, Paco said:

That’s a depressing read, no doubt about it. I doubt the Telegraph have went to the effort of making up the paper. If that’s the advice the government are getting, it’s dreadful news. Genuinely dreadful.

Two key points though where they discuss how 25% of the population would still be vulnerable between vaccines not being 100% effective and people not taking it - the overwhelming majority of that number not taking it will be young, and at least not vulnerable. As will a large number of those getting ineffective vaccine, it won’t skew solely to the old and vulnerable. So the big scary number is already far lower then 25%. When the virus can only find about one in eight or one in ten people to infect, it’s already well on the way to tapering out. So what’s the big problem here? Some people will die in the interim period, obviously. That’s bad. But it certainly wouldn’t be at 1500 a day unless Covid has learned how to target those it can kill.

Additionally the ‘source’ outlines all the big scary numbers and basically says the vaccines will be shit, and then says social distancing may have to stay ‘until the end of the year’ as a result. At which stage a magic wand will be waved, presumably? What would’ve actually changed between the big scary scenario in April where virtually everyone most at risk has been vaccinated, and January 1st 2022 where they’re, er, still vaccinated?

Although the paper is genuine, the narrative behind it is purely the media's ultra pessimistic interpretation of it. 

I would honestly not pay too much heed to the Telegraph under any circumstances. 

 

[Donathan]

That telegraph article is based on a scenario showing what would happen if literally all restrictions were lifted in mid February.

Absolutely no one is suggesting that.

Scaremongering clickbait pish

[welshbairn]

I thought the three approved vaccines were all claiming 100% protection against serious disease, ie. leading to death. J&J's drops a bit.

[ICTChris]

 

[superbigal]

Although I have been reporting the daily falls since 3rd January from 301.9 cases per 100K t

I thought it was worth having a look at the patterns through October-December. 

From October 1st we were at 77.4 per 100K. This rose quickly and by October 8th we were at 127.7 with problems focussed in Glasgow and Lanarkshire.

Politically in this week hospitality opening was restricted to 6am to 6pm, with extension to 10pm if outdoors. All Central belt Licensed premises were closed excluding takeaways. Outdoor contact sport stopped in these areas. Snooker halls etc. 

By the following week October 15th the cases were up to 153.1 which is higher than they are today. Lanarkshire itself had vaulted to very high levels.

Politically mask wearing in communal areas was introduced.

By October 22nd the rise had slowed down but we were at 165.9. This turns out to be the peak of this particular "wave"  No sign of any slowdown in Lanarkshire.

Politically the current temporary restrictions are extended till at least November 2nd

By October 29th the rate had dropped to 150.1.   Some progress in Lanarkshire

Politically on October 29th the new local authority levels were announced.   No authority were placed in Level 4.  Central belt plus Dundee in Level 3. The rest excepting Highlands and Islands in level 2.

By November 5th the rate was stable at 151.8    No real improvements in Lanarkshire & Glasgow.  (This in my opinion is where the West should have been moved to level 4)

Politically Masks were introduced in Schools for S4 to S6 pupils. Nationally Furlough suddenly extended to the End of March.

By November 12th the rate was down about 5% to 144.5.   What is clear however is Level 3 is having no real effect on the West coast where Renfrewshire, Dunbartonshire & Ayrshire also appear alongside Lanarkshire & Glasgow as real problematic areas.

Politically Pfizer announces their 90% effectiveness. Angus, Fife & P&K are moved from level 2 to level 3.  ( As an East coaster being in same level as Lanarkshire seems wrong)

By November 19th the rate was down to 135.2.   Still no effect in the West

Politically The West, Stirling & West Lothian finally moved to Level 4,  East Lothian and Midlothian granted a provisional date for moving down to level 2. This never happened.  Plans of a Mega testing Lab in Scotland announced by Westminster

By November 26th we had had a great week with the rate down to 113.7   Much improvement starting to show in Level 4 areeas.

Politically East Lothians do a Swindon Town and get their move from level 2 changed to level 4.  Xmas relaxation announced within period 23rd to 27th Dec with travel permitted and household mixing of up to 3 households or 6 adults.

By December 3rd rate continues to drop to 100.9 as we flirt with being back to levels of October 3rd.  This has been a 9 week cycle thus far. Level 4 clearly does work as the West drops quickly.

Politically Pfizer is approved of use.

By December 10th unfortunately we just cannot breach this 100 per 100K infections and the rate has started to rise again on a slow but daily basis to 106.9

Politically not a lot happening but vaccinations to start. It is clear however cases in the South East of England particularly in Kent are going through the roof.

By December 17th the 3rd wave is underway (Although we do not really know it or why ?) as cases rise to 116.8

Politically  East Lothian, Aberdeen & Aberdeenshire moved from level 2 to level 3  Scotgov start to get a little twitchy about not ripping the piss at Xmas time

By December 24th  cases starting to accelerate. Up to 137.5 (Very close to today)  Areas that traditionally never had high rates appearing near top of charts.

Politically  It all kicks off from out of nowhere as the Kent Variant officially is identified.   Xmas is tightened to 1 day only.  All areas to enter level 4 on Boxing day. What concerns me at this point is all the statistics will not be published accurately as everyone heads of on a 2 week holiday without realising just how bad things will get in the next 2 weeks.

Time to print daily numbers..

December 25th 130,0  & 26th 135.5  As diddly squat testing results.

December 27th  Here we go 151.7  as huge increases in Dundee & Renfrewshire start us off.

December 28th 160.9  No other areas surfacing as yet.

December 29th 194.1  A national 20% rise in 1 day as Dumfries & Galloway joins the party with a 40% rise

December 30th  224.3 Another 15% single day rise.  Acceleration taking effect in most places. Dumfries & Galloway doubles in 2 days. Renfrewshire surges through 300 mark

December 31st 249.1 Another 12% single day rise. Kicking off in the Borders big time & Lanarkshire joins the 300 club.

Happy New year January 1st 261.0    Probably not much testing as Glasgow joins the 300 club

January 2nd 282.2  Renfrew & North Lanark through the 400 barrier.

January 3rd We peak at 301.9  and the rest is well documented by my daily reports.

Probably difficult to apportion blame to the Kent variant or Xmas mixing.  But for me the latter with the former created a perfect short term storm.

Edited January 31, 2021 by superbigal

[Burnieman]

Meanwhile, in the land of zero Covid

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-55877150

Devi will be upset.

[Ron Aldo]

I know it's Hancock and anything he says should be taken with more than a pinch of salt but this goes against a lot of the doom and gloom we've been fed recently, for which he's been amongst the worst.

[Burnieman]

6 minutes ago, Ron Aldo said:

 

 

I know it's Hancock and anything he says should be taken with more than a pinch of salt but this goes against a lot of the doom and gloom we've been fed recently, for which he's been amongst the worst.

As I said earlier, the Tories will not allow lockdown/restrictions to last any longer than absolutely neccesary, 30th April/furlough is the end date.

To paraphrase Peter O'Hanraha-hanrahan "NS didn't like it, but she had to go along with it"

What of course it doesn't say is we'll be in the middle of a great British foreign holiday exodus........

Edited January 31, 2021 by Burnieman

[Todd_is_God]

18 minutes ago, Burnieman said:

Meanwhile, in the land of zero Covid

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-55877150

Devi will be upset.

On the contrary, she'll be fucking delighted that she can point to a 5 day lockdown being implemented off the back of 1 case.

[Burnieman]

1 minute ago, Todd_is_God said:

On the contrary, she'll be fucking delighted that she can point to a 5 day lockdown being implemented off the back of 1 case.

That's how she'll spin it.

[super_carson]

Meanwhile, in the land of zero Covid
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-55877150
Devi will be upset.

And again this highlights the absolute folly of zero covid. What is the point in a harsh and long lockdown when you'll just lockdown an entire city for 5 days with just one case to maintain it.

The likes of Sridhar are hoodwinking a lot.of people with the idea that it's the only way to get back to normal. Well, looking at Australia and Auckland last year, it's not really doing what she claims, is it?

[effeffsee_the2nd]

Things to remember
1. Devi doesn’t work for the Scottish or uk government
2. Leitch and co simply take the data they know, calculate how much x permitted activities cause y number of cases and therefore z number of hospitalisations. Give estimates of what wee packages of measures will have on the overall picture and for how long
They don’t concern themselves with the economy or social impacts .
Thing is when they get interviewed they don’t say that
When asked how long will current restrictions need to last they say “estimate around 6months to get to sustained low levels where elemimation is possible “. They don’t add on at the end” but really the government will intervene some time between now and then and accept a higher number a tradeoff”
So by listening to them you’re really only getting half the story