Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[Bairnardo]

1 minute ago, superbigal said:

All areas of Grangemouth just over 200 per 100K.  These reliable figures are 2 days behind the real world of testing.  So if it is kicking off it had not done on the 26th.

It was either yesterday or Wednesday someone at work mentioned a testing centre, and I cant imagine it being so quick to get set up that it's not in response to figures you already have? 

 

Sounds odd. 

[Marshmallo]

25 minutes ago, GiGi said:

Daft question of the day - while it's good to see the cases per 100k coming down, is there any indication of why it's so painfully slow? I'd have expected after the first couple of weeks of highest tier restrictions it should have been plummeting by now with most infected people stuck in the house and loads of others self isolating, yet a full  month later it isn't.

It's halved in a couple of weeks. That's very good I'd say.

[welshbairn]

24 minutes ago, TheScarf said:

Aye it's the 2 care homes I think.  It's a pretty rough place but don't think that can be blamed in this instance.

Yeah, 39 cases in last 7 days up to the 26th, so mainly the care homes. Hopefully it's contained and the whole Highland numbers will come right down by next week, seems to have stuck between 70 and 80/100,000 for a few days now.

Edited January 29, 2021 by welshbairn

[realmadrid]

32 minutes ago, GiGi said:

Daft question of the day - while it's good to see the cases per 100k coming down, is there any indication of why it's so painfully slow? I'd have expected after the first couple of weeks of highest tier restrictions it should have been plummeting by now with most infected people stuck in the house and loads of others self isolating, yet a full  month later it isn't.

They were discussing this on the BBC 1 news at 1 today following the latest ONS data

It could be the new variant while spreading more is resulting in less people in hospital and less people felling unwell and presenting for tests, so while the actual positive tests are going down the numbers who actually have it remain the same. Health wise if its about the NHS then thats still good news, especially once all the vulnerable have been protected.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/29january2021

The report for Scotland is below stating cases remain level subject to the constants.

During the week ending 23 January 2021¹, we estimate that 48,500 people in Scotland had the coronavirus (COVID-19) (95% credible interval: 41,900 to 55,700). This equates to 0.92% (95% credible interval: 0.79% to 1.06%) of the population in Scotland or around 1 in 110 people (95% credible interval: 1 in 125 to 1 in 95). The ratios in this bulletin are rounded to the nearest five. Our modelling suggests that in the week ending 23 January 2021, the percentage of people testing positive in Scotland remained level. This is based on exploratory modelling of throat and nose swab results.

Because of the relatively small number of tests and a low number of positives in our sample, credible intervals are wide and therefore results should be interpreted with caution.

In the latest six-week period, there were 64,892 swab tests, and a total of 569 positive tests, in 481 people from 425 households. In the latest two-week period, there were 25,125 swab tests, and a total of 237 positive tests, in 225 people from 194 households.

Official estimates are our headline estimates and should be used to understand the positivity rate for a single point in time. This estimate, based on the modelled estimate for the latest week, is our best and most stable estimate and is used in all previous outputs. The modelled estimate can be used to understand the recent trend. The modelling includes a set period of data and smooths the estimate over time.

Figure 12: The percentage testing positive in Scotland remained level in the week ending 23 January 2021

[renton]

40 minutes ago, GiGi said:

Daft question of the day - while it's good to see the cases per 100k coming down, is there any indication of why it's so painfully slow? I'd have expected after the first couple of weeks of highest tier restrictions it should have been plummeting by now with most infected people stuck in the house and loads of others self isolating, yet a full  month later it isn't.

Because even in very tight restrictions it is leaky. Short of hermetically sealing everyone in their houses for 3 weeks there isn't much you can do to stop all infections. As it is the rate is coming down reasonably quickly, actually. Especially if compared to the Nov 2020 decrease and even later stages of the Spring lockdown.

[GiGi]

Next daft question - why is GiGi so impatient?

[Marshmallo]

1 minute ago, GiGi said:

Next daft question - why is GiGi so impatient?

We just have high standards

[renton]

1 minute ago, GiGi said:

Next daft question - why is GiGi so impatient?

Because it's been a year now of this shit and your starting to climb the walls.

[RH33]

41 minutes ago, TheScarf said:

Aye it's the 2 care homes I think.  It's a pretty rough place but don't think that can be blamed in this instance.

Yes, thankfully one my granny in is still Covid free. She’s also had her first jag.

[djchapsticks]

55 minutes ago, GiGi said:

Daft question of the day - while it's good to see the cases per 100k coming down, is there any indication of why it's so painfully slow? I'd have expected after the first couple of weeks of highest tier restrictions it should have been plummeting by now with most infected people stuck in the house and loads of others self isolating, yet a full  month later it isn't.

I think it's dropping pretty quickly.

In terms of new cases being reported per day, approx 30% drop on this time last week. That's been the case for a few weeks now.

I like using the below link. It's the most comprehensive collection of data I've seen on it for UK.

https://www.travellingtabby.com/uk-coronavirus-tracker/

Edited January 29, 2021 by djchapsticks

[GiGi]

7 minutes ago, renton said:

Because it's been a year now of this shit and your starting to climb the walls.

[GiGi]

1 minute ago, djchapsticks said:

I think it's dropping pretty quickly.

In terms of new cases being reported per day, approx 30% drop on this time last week. That's been the case for a few weeks now.

https://www.travellingtabby.com/uk-coronavirus-tracker/

What I actually meant was why is not down 100% why are you plague goblins stopping me going for a pint but thanks for giving me some facts.

[Kneal Down Caster]

Todays Headlines:    Jean Freeman clarifies that a few crofters testing positive for Covid-19 should be the headline of the day (Note where Western Isles figure in the charts). Meanwhile in the real world.

INFECTIONS IN SCOTLAND HAVE almost HALVED.   Only 5 councils now over 200 cases per 100K   Even dropping in North Lanarkshire !!

Now accessed the other home nations for the cases per 100K latest and will document their daily progress.   These are a little behind the Scottish cases.  England  386.6 to 373.2 down 3.36%,   Wales  219.8 to 204.8 down 6.82% , Northern Ireland   284.1 to 271.7 down 4.36%,  all 3 dropping.  Wales in particular is dropping quickly and has indicated some possible relaxation from 22nd February.

For interest of the bigger European countries Portugal 846 having a torrid time and this may go over 1,000,  Spain 550 , Czech 443 are the big hitters.  

Scotland peaked at 301.9 for figures 29th Dec to 4th Jan    
From 19th to 25th January we were down to 159.4
Todays figure for 20th Jan to 26th Jan is  152.5     Another huge single Day drop of 4.33%. Infections have dropped every day (now TWENTY TWO days in a row) since the aforementioned peak.  Total drop is now 49.49% .   
Click cases by neighbourhood to see the spread on the geographical map. 
https://public.tableau.com/profile/phs.covid.19#!/vizhome/COVID-19DailyDashboard_15960160643010/Overview
North Lanarkshire  278.6 to 258.7    About time as well a nice 7.14% drop.
Glasgow City 247.5 to 236.1
South Lanarkshire 216.2 to 216.5
East Ayrshire 210.6 to 207.4   
West Dunbartonshire  212.5 to 203.5  
North Ayrshire 210.0 to 194.4  A great 7.43% drop sees another council drop sub 200
Clackmannanshire 184.3 to  188.2
Renfrewshire 207.7 to 186.5   What is going on ? 2 drops of over 10% .  Another through the 200 mark.
East Dunbartonshire   200.7 to 174.0  Over 13% drop.  Through the 200 barrier
Falkirk  169.7 to 170.9
East Renfrewshire  166.4 to 170.6
Angus  176.4 to 167.8    Continues to let down the East Coast
Dumfries & Galloway  172.6 to 165.9  Langholm & Eskdale still over 1176 Cases per 100K and Scotland's No 1 by a country mile .  They are doing blanket testing here though.
South Ayrshire   156.3 to 152.7     
Inverclyde  153.0 to 147.8  
Stirling   136.9 to 132.7
West Lothian 122.9 to 124.5
Aberdeen City   136.0 to 121.6  Great 10%+ drop.  Weird as Danestone risen to 1060 cases per 100K and 2nd place in Scotland.  Is this an area of deprivation my sheep friends ?
Moray   114.8 to 120.0   Waiting on the Shortbread factory appearing
Dundee City 131.9 to 115.9   Dropped by over 27.5% in just 3 days.  Outstanding.
Perth & Kinross  113.2 to 113.9
Midlothian  107.1 to 112.5  
Scottish  Borders  114.3 to 103.0  Another 10% drop and heading for the magic 100 mark.  
Aberdeenshire  99.5 to 95.7
Fife   95.0 to 95.3   
City Of Edinburgh  95.4 to 88.4 Still falling quickly even this low another 7.34%
Highlands  77.2 to 78.9   Invergordon still Stubborn @ 884 and rising again !!
Argyll & Bute  73.4 to 68.7
East Lothian  72.8 to 67.2  Still dropping faster than averages.
Orkney Island  31.4 to 31.4
 Shetland Islands  21.8 to 21.8
Western Isles    41.2 to 18.7   Currently only 5 Cases in the 7 days we measure. Waiting for Freeman doomsday to hit.

Thanks for your daily updates.
Around all the doom,gloom and daily noise, these daily updates and trends should be viewed positively.

Appreciate your efforts. Cheers.

[10menwent2mow]

Danestone a fairly run of the mill part of Bridge of Don which is neither a posh area nor economically deprived.

[superbigal]

Assuming the current trajectory when ScotGov meet on Tuesday.  Cases per 100K could be down to around 130 to 135 per 100K

The East & North average will probably be around 100 if not lower.

Hospital admission rates will be well down.  Deaths should be down.  Vaccinated numbers will be soaring.

I will do a council 1 week performance thread on Monday.

If Lockdown is extended and we do not get the word that the 0-4 Levels should be back by Monday 15th Feb then I will lose all respect for the powers that be.

Will still vote for them in May as the alternatives are frightening, but respect is still important.

Edited January 29, 2021 by superbigal

[RiG]

1 hour ago, superbigal said:

Aberdeen City   136.0 to 121.6  Great 10%+ drop.  Weird as Danestone risen to 1060 cases per 100K and 2nd place in Scotland.  Is this an area of deprivation my sheep friends ?

There has been an outbreak at a care home which likely falls under the Danestone area.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-north-east-orkney-shetland-55833327

1 hour ago, G51 said:

Curious to know why Invergordon's rate is so high. Are there any theories on why this is?

There were outbreaks in carehomes plus a localised outbreak in the area pre Christmas. It was heading down but there has been another lot of cases springing up in care homes in the area again.

[Dev]

19 hours ago, Snafu said:

It's typically German, they have a Plan B, and a Plan C if B doesn't work, probably a Plan D as well and so on.

What's our plan if Plan A fails?

Let's see! The EU fails to commit to buying any(?) of the vaccines being worked on around the world until August 2020 and plays no or little part in backing proposed vaccines. "Suddenly" in January 2021 it finds that it has a supply problem from Pfeizer, Moderna and Astrazeneca so it turns to the long established distraction pattern of "lets make a loud noise about one of the vaccine manufacturers and hope voters don't notice our failure to order anywhere near enough doses of vaccine".

How did this come about though? I don't suppose it was something to do with one of the main EU nations having a relatively low level of covid and having laboratories already in place for Track and Trace and so not seeing the urgency of the Pandemic situation in the remainder of the EU? Thank Goodness the UK escaped just in time.

Meanwhile the UK orders hundreds of millions of doses of vaccines from a wide range of worldwide companies and, from the outset, actively supports and invests in a highly successful Oxford University Astrazeneca vaccine project as well as others including Novavax, Johnson & Johnson, etc. 

Seems fairly obvious that the UK's Plan A is working and included Plans B, C, D etc too. It's the EU that been caught with its' pants down. No Plan so come up with distractions and hope no-one will notice.

 

[DeeTillEhDeh]

God what a dull and limited imagination you must have.
It's a fucking global health crisis, you abandon said fiduciary responsibility in the name of fixing it for the benefit of the world.
If you're seriously still trying to secure #profit first and foremost in a time like this, then you should be up against a wall.

You do realise that the billionnaires have gotten even more rich during this crisis?

You are naive if you think businesses won't look after their own interests first and foremost.

[Todd_is_God]

5 minutes ago, superbigal said:

If Lockdown is extended... then I will lose all respect for the powers that be.

Will still vote for them in May

The problem with Scottish politics in a nutshell

[Burnieman]

5 minutes ago, superbigal said:

Assuming the current trajectory when ScotGov meet on Tuesday.  Cases per 100K could be down to around 130 to 135 per 100K

The East & North average will probably be around 100 if not lower.

Hospital admission rates will be well down.  Deaths should be down.  Vaccinated numbers will be soaring.

I will do a council 1 week performance thread on Monday.

If Lockdown is extended and we do not get the word that the 0-4 Levels should be back by Monday 15th Feb then I will lose all respect for the powers that be.

Will still vote for them in May as the alternatives are frightening, but respect is still important.

Looking at the daily new infection numbers, the trend would suggest that we could be below 100 new cases per day in Scotland by the end of February.

As you say, if many areas are not at least in Level 3 by that time, nor a route map of how to get to Level 0, then it raises big questions.