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The US Presidential election prediction thread


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25 minutes ago, Detournement said:

Obviously because they are a real political party. 

Compare and contrast to the Dems forming a guard of honour for the new SC judge. 

Quite. They are ruthless though, so I'd be surprised if they went the distance for Trump if it's obvious Biden has won.

They have the judges, which was the main thing.

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31 minutes ago, 101 said:

Excellent news, one day Scotland can hopefully be as diverse although I would rather not have someone of Madisons beliefs

 

By the time she was Madison's age Mhari Black had been elected three times. At one point the Scottish Labour party, The Scottish Tories, The Scottish Greens and even the Scottish branch of UKIP had gay leaders.  Scotland isn't doing too badly

 

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18 minutes ago, jamamafegan said:

Watching Sky news and there are a bunch of “poll challengers” outside the entrance to the polling station who are getting angry about not getting let in. Police have had to remove people and the windows are now being boarded up so the challengers can’t be seen. The correspondent is describing the atmosphere as heated. Absolute weirdos.

Fox news reporting from there as well but don't know why the screens have been put up saying it's to stop observers seeing in but it looks like the opposite I guess it's beyond 2 Murdoch news agencies to speak to each other.

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Just now, topcat(The most tip top) said:

 

By the time she was Madison's age Mhari Black had been elected three times. At one point the Scottish Labour party, The Scottish Tories, The Scottish Greens and even the Scottish branch of UKIP had gay leaders.  Scotland isn't doing too badly

 

 

True but Trans representation and ethnic minorities other than Asian Scots would be nice. But you're right we don't do too badly.

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14 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

So why did the Dem concede with 15% of the votes uncounted and Collins on 51%? Maybe because the nutter at the bottom's votes would go to Collins and the Green would still be taking 5% off Gideon. Happy GOP Senate!

I don't get it. Does the Republican have a majority of votes or not?

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47 minutes ago, Detournement said:

They have a run off in Maine if no one gets a majority.

They don't have a run-off, they reallocate second preference votes of the worst performing candidate until one have over 50%.

So if the Republican knew that s/he had no chance of winning even if all the "second preference" votes went their way, it wasn't worth carrying on the pretence that you can win.

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9 minutes ago, MixuFruit said:

So if the democrats lose Arizona in the end what happens?

Biden would pretty much have to rely on clawing Pennsylvania back

20 minutes ago, MP_MFC said:

Sounds like Arizona is far from secure for Biden

Yes, but CNN reckons the vast majority of the uncounted ballots are in Maricopa County, which is strongly Biden-leaning. 

Dems should take Arizona, it's Nevada which is even tighter, although Biden should get across the finishing line there too.

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4 minutes ago, topcat(The most tip top) said:

 

By the time she was Madison's age Mhari Black had been elected three times. At one point the Scottish Labour party, The Scottish Tories, The Scottish Greens and even the Scottish branch of UKIP had gay leaders.  Scotland isn't doing too badly

 

 

Thanks for the update, Dryhorce.

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1 minute ago, Boo Khaki said:

Biden would pretty much have to rely on clawing Pennsylvania back

Yes, but CNN reckons the vast majority of the uncounted ballots are in Maricopa County, which is strongly Biden-leaning. 

Dems should take Arizona, it's Nevada which is even tighter, although Biden should get across the finishing line there too.

Hence random Trumpers declaring victory in Pennsylvania.  It goes beyond politicking and into the realms of criminality.  They have no shame.  They are trying to steal the election.  

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Yes, but CNN reckons the vast majority of the uncounted ballots are in Maricopa County, which is strongly Biden-leaning. 
Dems should take Arizona, it's Nevada which is even tighter, although Biden should get across the finishing line there too.
Georgia is also waiting on postal ballot results in 4 counties in and around Atlanta - where Biden is doing well.

In North Carolina Trump is ahead, but the state will continue accepting mail-in ballots, which favour Biden, for several days, making this result still uncertain.
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3 minutes ago, Bully Wee Villa said:

They don't have a run-off, they reallocate second preference votes of the worst performing candidate until one have over 50%.

So if the Republican knew that s/he had no chance of winning even if all the "second preference" votes went their way, it wasn't worth carrying on the pretence that you can win.

Assuming you mean the Democrat. As I understand it the candidate with the least votes would get kicked out, in his case his votes would almost certainly go to the Republican, and the Democrat would still be splitting her votes with the Green. So the Democrat thought she was fucked before the remaining 15% of the votes had been counted.

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