Next temporary leader of the Conservative Party PM

[btb]

4 minutes ago, VincentGuerin said:

The big worry for me is that if BJ gets back in, the certainty that Labour win the next election suddenly becomes merely a likelihood.

The Presidential Factor is an increasingly significant factor in our GEs but IMO Boris maxed out in 2019 - would anyone who didn't vote Boris in 2019 be liable to switch on the basis of his spell in charge?

"Got the big calls right" is the mantra of his fanboys (both sexes).

[BigDoddyKane]

7 minutes ago, VincentGuerin said:

I don't doubt that nothing will change.

But the news agenda could save him. I'm not sure where you live, but a very common feeling where I live (East Midlands) is that Boris was hard done by, covid wasn't that big a deal, he shouldn't have been chucked out, he was stabbed in the back. People genuinely like him.

Covid is old news now. The economic crisis and the war is the big thing. Johnson can play that role. He's an actor.

With a gentle massaging of the news agenda, very easily done, it is not hard to see a situation where he's rehabilitated. The English electorate is always ready to vote Tory, and BJ is an excuse for people for whom the likes of Truss are a step to far to go back and do so again.

They're genuinely insane.

you could be right, sadly 

[VincentGuerin]

3 minutes ago, btb said:

The Presidential Factor is an increasingly significant factor in our GEs but IMO Boris maxed out in 2019 - would anyone who didn't vote Boris in 2019 be liable to switch on the basis of his spell in charge?

"Got the big calls right" is the mantra of his fanboys (both sexes).

I hope you're right, and you may be. But it's far from a given.

The electorate has never warmed to Starmer. He lacks charisma, and it's easy (and fair) for the media to say he hasn't presented a coherent solution to the problems the country has. Labour need to be more aggressive in getting a message out about how exactly they are an alternative to what we have now. They're failing to do that just now, and Johnson will lap that up.

BJ gets the big calls right, he was a victim of the political establishment stabbing him in the back, he understands working people, Starmer is boring and Labour have no plan anyway. Repeat, repeat, repeat, and delay the election as long as possible, and the Tories can win.

I'm not saying they'd suddenly be favourites. But the idea that they couldn't win is gone if BJ comes back. I think the Tories would be insane to pick anyone else from a purely pragmatic point of view.

[O'Kelly Isley III]

28 minutes ago, VincentGuerin said:

I hope you're right, and you may be. But it's far from a given.

The electorate has never warmed to Starmer. He lacks charisma, and it's easy (and fair) for the media to say he hasn't presented a coherent solution to the problems the country has. Labour need to be more aggressive in getting a message out about how exactly they are an alternative to what we have now. They're failing to do that just now, and Johnson will lap that up.

BJ gets the big calls right, he was a victim of the political establishment stabbing him in the back, he understands working people, Starmer is boring and Labour have no plan anyway. Repeat, repeat, repeat, and delay the election as long as possible, and the Tories can win.

I'm not saying they'd suddenly be favourites. But the idea that they couldn't win is gone if BJ comes back. I think the Tories would be insane to pick anyone else from a purely pragmatic point of view.

Are you watching @Jedi ?  

Labour needs to stop trying to win power by simply 'not being the other mob' and playing by Marquis of Queensberry Rules whilst the Tories are the Sopranos for real.

As I posted the other day as long as this situation continues, Scots voters who seek meaningful change for the better would be MAD to vote for London-based parties.

[Dawson Park Boy]

27 minutes ago, VincentGuerin said:

I hope you're right, and you may be. But it's far from a given.

The electorate has never warmed to Starmer. He lacks charisma, and it's easy (and fair) for the media to say he hasn't presented a coherent solution to the problems the country has. Labour need to be more aggressive in getting a message out about how exactly they are an alternative to what we have now. They're failing to do that just now, and Johnson will lap that up.

BJ gets the big calls right, he was a victim of the political establishment stabbing him in the back, he understands working people, Starmer is boring and Labour have no plan anyway. Repeat, repeat, repeat, and delay the election as long as possible, and the Tories can win.

I'm not saying they'd suddenly be favourites. But the idea that they couldn't win is gone if BJ comes back. I think the Tories would be insane to pick anyone else from a purely pragmatic point of view.

Kind of agree with you but I think it’s maybe a bit too early for BOJO to return.

Yes, he got most of the big calls right apart from being pushed into the ludicrous Covid lockdowns which have wrecked the economy. He obviously was against them but wasn’t able to withstand the pressure from all the medical and left wing  media   wimps who pressurised him into all  the anti-libertarian policies.. Goodness knows when the country will recover from all the costs involved in that? What did it achieve? Nothing apart from current increased excess deaths.

[Guest Jedi]

11 minutes ago, O'Kelly Isley III said:

Are you watching @Jedi ?  

Labour needs to stop trying to win power by simply 'not being the other mob' and playing by Marquis of Queensberry Rules whilst the Tories are the Sopranos for real.

As I posted the other day as long as this situation continues, Scots voters who seek meaningful change for the better would be MAD to vote for London-based parties.

Don't disagree that Starmer comes across as 'boring', and yes, Labour need to be really pushing a 'here is how we will be different agenda' now. The boring part could work quite well this time though...it is a contrast to the utter chaos the Tories have created in the last 6 plus years. I think even a lot of voters in England are sick of that, and will now prefer some one who although dull, comes across as more stable.

I'm not so sure about the 'love' for Johnson in England either. His big cut through in 2019 was 'Get Brexit Done' and 'I'm not Corbyn'....he doesn't have either of these this time. He will also soon be enmeshed in some other scandal. A lot of his own MP's will probably resign the Tory whip. 

Assuming the Tories do drag this out for another 2 years, the big 'moment' will be the Supreme Court decision. If that is a No, (if its Yes, we obviously get the Ref next year). I reckon it will be difficult for the SNP to win 50% plus of the vote in the GE on the single 'negotiate Independence platform'.

[Benjamin_Nevis]

17 minutes ago, Dawson Park Boy said:

Kind of agree with you but I think it’s maybe a bit too early for BOJO to return.

Yes, he got most of the big calls right apart from being pushed into the ludicrous Covid lockdowns which have wrecked the economy. He obviously was against them but wasn’t able to withstand the pressure from all the medical and left wing  media   wimps who pressurised him into all  the anti-libertarian policies.. Goodness knows when the country will recover from all the costs involved in that? What did it achieve? Nothing apart from current increased excess deaths.

[Leith Green]

21 minutes ago, Dawson Park Boy said:

Kind of agree with you but I think it’s maybe a bit too early for BOJO to return.

Yes, he got most of the big calls right apart from being pushed into the ludicrous Covid lockdowns which have wrecked the economy. He obviously was against them but wasn’t able to withstand the pressure from all the medical and left wing  media   wimps who pressurised him into all  the anti-libertarian policies.. Goodness knows when the country will recover from all the costs involved in that? What did it achieve? Nothing apart from current increased excess deaths.

[BFTD]

Been wondering what angle DPB would take to run contrary to the "echo chamber", but random Covid feels very tired. More effort required!

[Guest Jedi]

Reckon its heading in Sunak's direction though....as the only one with over 100 MP's at the moment.  Although nearly 200 of them still to 'declare'. Mordaunt will probably just drop out.

If it's a straight shoot out between Sunak and Johnson, the MP's vote will go to Sunak...how do they work it when the members go for Johnson then?

[Dan Steele]

Big shout out to Mr Got All the Big Calls Right 

[Boo Khaki]

1 minute ago, Jedi said:

Reckon its heading in Sunak's direction though....as the only one with over 100 MP's at the moment.  Although nearly 200 of them still to 'declare'. Mordaunt will probably just drop out.

If it's a straight shoot out between Sunak and Johnson, the MP's vote will go to Sunak...how do they work it when the members go for Johnson then?

If their idiotic membership goes for Johnson then Johnson will return as PM, but I think it's a guaranteed 'Corbyn moment' on steroids.

The dichotomy here is that if you really are angling for an expedited GE, this is probably the outcome you want regardless of how fucking disastrous it would be for the UK, because I think it's obvious there isn't the popular support for Johnson within the parliamentary party they are trying to kid on, so it's entirely realistic to think that bringing him back might well lead to mass defections, chaos in the ranks, and the complete collapse of his government within days. 

OK, none of that precludes them just coronating yet another PM to replace him and carrying on as if nothing is amiss, but if your priority is just 'get the Tories away to f**k' it's probably more likely to bring that about than them limping on for two years under Sunak or Mordor.

[sophia]

1 hour ago, Deanburn Dave said:

Those who want the return of Boris should remember the saying "Fool me once, shame on you.  Fool me twice, shame on me." 

It is beyond staggering that he has the brass neck to run again.

 

[Guest Jedi]

Membership are a stick on to vote for Johnson if he is in the final 2. 

Agree that that is the scenario likely to create the most chaos, with MP's sitting as Independents, him scrabbling around to even form a cabinet, and the misleading parliament enquiry still to come soon.

Surely there would have to be a GE if he is put in and then toppled soon as well.

Also agree that Sunak would drag it all out for another 2 years.

[eez-eh]

In amongst watching these absolute c***s being absolute c***s, it’s very slightly amusing that Mordaunt - the only one who’s officially announced they’re running and has practically been whoring themselves out for the job since the second Truss stood down - has so far only amassed one fifth of the required votes and is already miles behind.

[btb]

Declared backers as of 12:03

Sunak 104

Johnson 50

Mordaunt 22

That's 176 of the current Tory MPs with 179 still to declare, if Sunak gets over half (and that looks a certainty) I reckon Johnson will give way "for the good of the country". Shame, but as I said above the Tories are committed to AusterityMax and a GE as far off as thay can manage so I don't reckon it'll make much difference.

**************

Frost declaring for Sunak must be the "Et tu Brutus, then fall Caeser" moment....

Edited October 22, 2022 by btb

[Granny Danger]

9 minutes ago, btb said:

Declared backers as of 12:03

Sunak 104

Johnson 50

Mordaunt 22

That's 176 of the current Tory MPs with 179 still to declare, if Sunak gets over half (and that looks a certainty) I reckon Johnson will give way "for the good of the country". Shame, but as I said above the Tories are committed to AusterityMax and a GE as far off as thay can manage so I don't reckon it'll make much difference.

I’m not sure if Johnson has ever done anything for the good of anyone but himself.

If Johnson gets the 100 threshold he will be under great pressure from the Tory membership and the ERG types to stand.  They won’t want a brown ‘moderate’ foisted on them.

[btb]

2 minutes ago, Granny Danger said:

I’m not sure if Johnson has ever done anything for the good of anyone but himself.

If Johnson gets the 100 threshold he will be under great pressure from the Tory membership and the ERG types to stand.  They won’t want a brown ‘moderate’ foisted on them.

You may be right but we're down the looking glass here!

What are the odds on Sunak looking at the clusterfuck and saying me & the missus are taking our £730M and heading for Vegas, yeah that's right Vegas Baby!

 

[BFTD]

[Caledonian1]

15 minutes ago, btb said:

Declared backers as of 12:03

Sunak 104

Johnson 50

Mordaunt 22

That's 176 of the current Tory MPs with 179 still to declare, if Sunak gets over half (and that looks a certainty) I reckon Johnson will give way "for the good of the country". Shame, but as I said above the Tories are committed to AusterityMax and a GE as far off as thay can manage so I don't reckon it'll make much difference.

**************

Frost declaring for Sunak must be the "Et tu Brutus, then fall Caeser" moment....

Why would he?  If he gets to 100 MP backers then it is very much game on as he will then be up against Sunak with a very different electorate voting - one that is blind to this economy nonsense and would far rather see their second coming of Churchill than a wee brown person at PM