Early 2023/24 predictions

[Nightmare]

7 hours ago, RossBFaeDundee said:

The crown this season though was shared between two posters who managed a formidable 10 points each. First up is @Nightmare with a dream of a prediction, as aside from Airdrie and QP was pretty much perfect. The other winner this year is @GuyIncognito, who saw the Spiders slipping but his pure love and belief in Ayr United the only other preventer of near-perfection. A very well done to the both of you!

 

Cheers for organising and especially tallying up the scores and providing this summary, which must have taken fucking ages! Fair play.

[San Starko Rover]

It’s great to see I was right about being wrong. 

[Chapelhall chap]

Happy to be average. Did better in the weekly predictions table, as did the Diamonds. Thanks for final summary.

[ClydeTon]

On 05/05/2024 at 01:51, RossBFaeDundee said:

Alright then, suppose I'll do my usual with these prediction threads for the fun of it, as well as due to the fact that I really enjoy this league (just not being in it!). Considering how early this thread was created it'll be quite interesting to see how some of those really early guesses will look now.

The lower your final points total is, the more accurate your placings of each specific team has been and the more accurate your league prediction is. The scores vary high and low for this one, probably owing to just how tight and chaotic this league has been. After going through them all this is how I would categorise the quality of prediction:

Under 16 = Brilliant effort, likely need more than half the teams predicted exactly right for that.

16 to 20 = A very good prediction that is worth a little smugness.

22 to 26 = Bang average, which in this crazy league is still a decent effort.

28 and above = Well... at least you tried!

And now, the results.

Final results:

Page 1:

@Jives Miguel Version 1: 4+1+3+5+3+2+3+5+2+6 = 34
-- Version 2 (Page 19): 0+3+6+2+2+0+0+4+1+0 = 18

@callum-ayr - 0+0+4+2+0+2+4+1+5+0 = 18

@itzdrk Version 1: 1+6+2+1+1+3+0+2+0+6 = 22
-- Version 2 (Page 11): 0+6+1+1+1+1+2+1+5+0 = 18

@madton - 0+0+0+1+2+3+1+2+5+0 = 14

@Rob1885 - 0+0+6+4+0+1+1+5+5+0 = 22

@David_86 - 0+0+5+3+4+1+1+4+6+0 = 24

@Broken Algorithms - 0+0+5+1+2+0+2+3+5+0 = 18

@HoBNob Version 1: 0+0+2+2+2+3+1+1+1+6 = 18
-- Version 2 (Page 20): 0+1+1+2+0+3+0+4+1+0 = 12

@mcjameos - 0+0+6+2+3+1+4+3+1+6 = 26

@Highlandmagar - 0+4+1+1+4+2+3+5+2+0 = 22

Page 2:

@Oceanlineayr - 1+1+6+1+1+2+0+5+1+6 = 24

@clashcityrocker - 0+0+3+5+5+1+4+0+4+6 = 28

@jaggyness - 0+0+4+2+3+3+2+1+5+0 = 20

@Slacker - 0+6+0+5+3+1+1+3+5+0 = 24

@Diamond Oracle - 0+0+3+1+1+3+3+0+2+5 = 18

@Chapelhall chap - 0+3+6+2+3+3+0+4+1+0 = 22

@chattyman - 0+0+4+5+2+1+1+2+5+2 = 22

@Mr.Blue - 0+0+2+5+1+1+4+2+1+6 = 22

@Shandon Par - 5+1+2+1+4+1+3+0+1+8 = 26

Page 3:

@eindhovendee - 0+4+6+1+3+3+0+2+5+2 = 26

@ClydeTon Version 1: 0+5+2+2+3+3+5+1+1+6 = 28
-- Version 2 (Page 11): 0+6+2+2+3+3+4+1+1+6 = 28
-- Version 3 (Page 13, FFS): 9+3+1+1+3+0+2+1+1+9 = 30 
-- Version 4 (Page 17  ) 2+1+2+2+3+2+2+1+1+6 = 22

@Richey Edwards - 2+1+4+2+4+1+1+4+1+2 = 22

@Jaffa - 0+7+1+1+1+2+2+2+2+6 = 24

Page 4:

@diegomarahenry - either 0+7+0+3+0+0+1+6+1+6 or 0+7+0+1+1+2+5+1+1+6, both = 24

@Heid_The_Baw - 0+0+3+1+0+3+0+0+5+0 = 12

Page 5:

@Ex Machina - 7+1+0+2+0+0+2+1+1+6 = 20

@DA Baracus - 0+0+2+2+3+3+3+2+6+3 = 24

@Shooter McGavin - 3+4+2+5+0+4+5+5+1+3 = 32

@williebraveheart - 0+1+5+2+4+1+5+3+1+6 = 28

Page 6:

@Spider1975 - 0+4+1+5+2+2+0+3+1+6 = 24

@RossBFaeDundee - 0+1+1+2+0+1+2+0+5+0 = 12 

Page 7:

@DreamOakTree1 - 1+6+2+2+2+1+2+5+5+0 = 26

@cb_diamond - 0+0+3+5+2+1+1+5+5+0 = 22

@jagfox - 0+7+0+4+2+0+5+3+1+6 = 28

Page 8:

@Leedafc - 0+0+0+5+3+1+1+1+5+0 = 16

Page 9:

@Chubbychops - 0+6+6+2+1+3+3+3+2+0 = 26

@Brmiddleton4 - 0+4+1+1+4+1+3+0+6+6 = 26

Page 10:

@dirty dingus - 4+1+0+2+3+3+1+1+5+0 = 20

@San Starko Rover - 0+6+6+2+1+1+4+2+4+6 = 32

@MORleyTON - 0+7+0+1+3+0+1+1+1+6 = 20

Page 11:

@Dunning1874 - 0+6+6+1+3+3+1+1+1+6 = 28

@Andriy_Parmolenko - 0+7+1+1+1+3+1+4+2+0 = 20

Page 12:

@Diamonds_Are_Forever - 0+1+6+2+2+2+1+3+3+0 = 20

@CathcartSkins - 0+7+0+4+1+4+0+3+1+6 = 26

@Gibb20 - 0+0+0+2+3+3+2+1+5+0 = 16

Page 13:

@Acon - 0+4+6+2+3+3+0+4+4+0 = 26

Page 14:

@Salvo Montalbano - 0+1+6+2+3+1+1+4+2+0 = 20

@Hawk89 - 2+6+1+1+4+1+2+2+5+0 = 24

@Poet of the Macabre - 0+1+5+2+4+0+0+3+5+0 = 20

@Liam899 - 5+1+2+2+3+4+3+1+8+1 = 30

@Zanetti - 0+7+1+4+2+0+0+3+1+6 = 24

@AlwaysAPar - 0+3+0+2+3+3+3+1+1+0 = 16

@CityDave94 (the away days prediction!) - 8+1+4+1+5+4+1+2+8+6 = 40 

@Terry_Tibbs - 0+1+6+2+1+1+2+0+1+6 = 20

@The Naitch - 0+1+5+1+1+4+2+1+5+0 = 20

@Loon From Outta Toon - 0+1+6+2+1+1+3+3+1+0 = 18

@qpfc - 0+1+1+3+3+1+1+1+1+6 = 18

Page 15:

@snapper55 - 0+7+2+2+1+1+3+0+6+6 = 28

@keyser_soze - 1+1+2+2+2+2+2+5+5+0 = 22

Page 16:

@thisal - 0+5+6+2+1+3+1+3+5+0 = 26

Page 17:

@Fuctifano - 0+0+0+1+3+1+1+1+1+6 = 14

@Les Cabbage - 0+0+0+2+3+3+0+4+4+0 = 16

Page 18:

@Oberon43 - 0+4+0+2+0+4+1+1+5+1 = 18

@Rael Rover - 0+1+1+2+3+1+0+2+0+6 = 16

@D'Jaffo - 0+4+1+3+2+3+2+0+5+0 = 20

@Nightmare - 0+0+0+1+1+3+0+0+5+0 = 10

@Wildrover - 1+1+0+2+4+2+0+3+5+0 = 18

@oneteaminglasgow - 0+1+1+3+0+0+1+1+1+6 = 14

Page 19:

@The Ghost of B A R P - 0+0+2+1+2+0+2+4+1+2 = 14

@TxRover - 0+4+1+1+4+2+2+1+1+6 = 22

@AyrAtlanta - 0+4+6+3+0+3+5+0+5+0 = 26

@virginton - 0+4+0+2+0+2+2+1+1+6 = 18

Page 20:

@GuyIncognito - 0+0+4+1+0+0+1+4+0+0 = 10

@Grumpy Soo-sider - 0+1+1+4+1+3+0+2+5+5 = 22

@Juanhourjoe - 7+1+6+1+3+0+3+5+2+0 = 28

@Paisley Ton - 0+5+0+1+4+4+1+2+1+6 = 24

@GiGi - 0+4+1+4+2+1+0+2+0+6 = 20

@Ian Mcleod - 0+6+1+3+2+2+1+1+4+0 = 20

@Cyclops van Gogh 1867 - 7+7+2+2+0+3+1+1+5+0 = 28

@DG_RRFC - 0+0+0+1+3+1+1+1+5+0 = 12

Page 21:

@par-adise - 0+1+1+4+1+3+0+3+5+0 = 18

@Mr November - 0+1+1+2+0+1+2+4+1+0 = 14

@Theholyglove - 0+0+5+1+0+0+2+1+1+6 = 16

@ayrunitedfw - 0+1+4+2+1+3+1+3+5+0 = 20

@Arachnophile - 2+1+1+5+3+1+3+2+1+5 = 24

@Dysart - 2+1+6+2+2+2+5+3+1+6 = 30

@Ziggy - 0+0+0+1+4+0+1+1+1+6 = 14

@Gibby82 - 0+7+1+0+2+3+1+3+1+2 = 20

 

Synopsis:

All things considered, I feel like the standard of predictions for this season just past was quite high for the most part, though with a few obvious exceptions. There's always one team that punches far further above their weight than most expect, and of course this season it was Airdrie doing the shutting up with their excellent season (and that's not including winning the Challenge Cup!) Whether or not they sneak promotion from 4th place for a second straight year, their season to remember helped weigh down good predictions that could've been even better.

As for the disappointers, Queen's Park regressing from last year seems obvious now but plenty of folk early on felt they had it in them to push for play-offs again. Inverness however seemed to be a bigger surprise for predictions despite their sinking in the table last year. You could probably count on one hand the number of folk willing to say they'd be in or around the very bottom come season's end, but here we are.

Best Predictions:

Last season saw some really impressive scores, including the only single-digit score I've seen doing this over the last few years - a crazy 8 from the long-missing @Death in Vegas - and that stayed the case this season, but not without some bloody good attempts.

First of all, a 'fair play' to the 6 posters who finished with 14 points, those being @madton (who made his prediction all the way back on June 15th!), @Fuctifano, @oneteaminglasgow, @The Ghost of B A R P, @Mr November and @Ziggy.

On to the big sexy twelvers. The first to crack 12 points was @Heid_The_Baw, who went one better and also called Raith ending their hoodoo against ICT. Then there was... oh, me! Your humble host @RossBFaeDundee smashed this one, with only Airdrie being a blip. I should've known better after our League Cup game, and I even said so:

Ach well. The next two 12s came late on, with @HoBNob updating an already respectable 18 point prediction all the way back in June to improve on it, and finally @DG_RRFC throwing a solid attempt in the day before play began. The common killer? Airdrie, and to a lesser extent Queen's Park for all except me, who nailed QP but slightly overestimated Dunfermline and underestimated Caley Thistle. 

The crown this season though was shared between two posters who managed a formidable 10 points each. First up is @Nightmare with a dream of a prediction, as aside from Airdrie and QP was pretty much perfect. The other winner this year is @GuyIncognito, who saw the Spiders slipping but his pure love and belief in Ayr United the only other preventer of near-perfection. A very well done to the both of you!

Worst Predictions:

As I said in the synopsis, the average prediction was pretty decent compared to seasons past. There were only 7 predictions at 30 points or higher, which compared to last season is down by a third or so. Three posters managed 30 points exactly, with @ClydeTon managing it on his 3rd of 4(!) attempts, though admittedly I'm aware it was a less serious one as it was immediately after United were beat by Partick in their shambolic League Cup campaign and had them at the bottom with Arbroath top. I bring this up however, as had he swapped top and bottom he too would have been relaxing in the idyllic gardens of 12 points. Still, his last prediction garnered a respectable 22 points, so it's not all bad.

Next up was @Liam899, whose crystal ball which saw Dunfermline take the title and United relegated to Cove Rangers probably needs put in the bin, maybe don't buy them off Wish. The final 30 pointer came from @Dysart, whose faith in ICT as opposed to his own Raith Rovers resulted in this prediction. I'm sure he'll not be complaining Rovers did better than he thought they would though!

Two unfortunate souls made it to 32 points, with @Shooter McGavin first reaching the mark. The fact that having his beloved Airdrie as champions was one of his better predictions perhaps says something. @San Starko Rover was the other to hit this ill-fated mark, and prefaced it by claiming he was "normally way off". With ICT and QP in the play-offs and Partick and Airdrie in the bottom half, who am I to argue?

Only one prediction hit 34 points, the mark which three posters bottomed out with last season, and four posters the year before that. Impressively, it was with the very first effort as well. When you think of trying to predict a league six weeks before it even starts, before teams have even got settled squads, you imagine it'll be an utter crapshoot, but largely a disaster. Some of them turned out great (see madton earlier) but @Jives Miguel opened this thread with a doozy. With such an early prediction, you can dare to dream a little more, and naturally Jives had to place Morton at the top above all, with Dunfermline and ICT in the play-offs. Couple those with a Partick-Ayr-Airdrie bottom three, and we have a certified stinker. Jives would more than make up for it later down the line, with a revised, more modest prediction (Morton were only in 2nd) netted a much more creditable 18 points through a pretty solid bottom half call.

Last but not least however was @CityDave94, who eschewed predictions and instead compiled a table based on his feelings about the clubs, their fans and away days. So while not a proper prediction, his rankings would amass an unprecedented 40 points through Caley being #1, United deservedly being right at the bottom and other entertaining musings that I enjoyed enough to highlight. Curious to see how this table will look in League One next season!

Thank you all for participating!

Throughout the season I did come back to this thread to see what my predictions were. I got a different answer each time... I now know why.

I will try* to keep track of myself for next year's effort 

Although, I am very proud of myself for managing to get my worst score in a joke effort; which had I been serious would have been quite good. It's funnier that way.