2023/24 Scottish Premiership Predictor

[Gekko]

On 04/08/2023 at 22:14, Gekko said:

1. Rangers

2. Celtic

3. Aberdeen

4. Kilmarnock

5. Hibs

6. Hearts

7. St. Mirren

8. St. Johnstone

9. Motherwell

10. Ross County

11. Dundee

12. Livingston

 

This is based on there's usually one team each year to exceed expectations, this season I'll go for Kilmarnock. And one team who does the opposite, I'll go for Livi.

Like most others have said, the bottom half could end up in any order.

I should add that I normally get these things drastically wrong.

I'm taking pass marks for my comments alone.

[Mr. X]

10 hours ago, Dons_1988 said:

Quite funny how many predicted us for 3rd. Myself included but I did caveat it…

My overall prediction was absolutely shite too. I think other than the obvious it’s just an incredibly difficult league to predict before a ball is kicked. 

Finished freakily well in 22/23 under Robson, so the lazy prediction was for this to continue into new season. 

Predicting outwith the two teams to finish in the top two is near impossible.

[Hendricks]

11 hours ago, VincentGuerin said:

 

Next season almost everybody will predict Hearts to finish third, Killie and St Mirren to make top 6 etc etc.

 

I'm sure the fans of a certain club will still be predicting them to finish 3rd for the 5th time in 4 decades  

[RossBFaeDundee]

Right then, season's over so it's time for the results of the Premiership Predictor. Meant to get this finished a wee bit earlier but was caught up with attending the Cannes Film Festival, dinnae mind me . Back now though, time to judge and critique predictions made ages ago with far less info than we had come May. I just hope none of you grossly underestimated Dundee, that would look very silly!

Brief rundown of the rules:
The lower your final points total is, the more accurate your placings of each specific team has been and the more accurate your league prediction is. If anyone predicts everything but the Old Firm, I'll still count it but will assume the order was the wrong way round. I also add any prediction that fits with the format, regardless of how serious or not it is, just for the fun of it. After going through them all this is how I would categorise the quality of prediction:

Under 20 = Brilliant effort, likely need more than half the teams predicted exactly right for that.

22 to 24 = A very good prediction that is worth a little smugness.

24 to 30 = Bang average, which in this crazy league is still a decent effort.

Above 30 = Well... at least you tried!

And now, the results.

Final results:

Page 1:

@RossBFaeDundee - 0+0+4+1+1+2+2+1+2+4+1+2 = 20

@RandomGuy. - 0+0+4+1+3+6+2+3+0+0+7+6 = 32

@Brmiddleton4 - 0+0+4+1+4+0+2+0+5+2+0+2 = 20

@stu2910 - 0+0+4+4+2+1+5+2+2+1+7+2 = 30

@buddie06smfc - 0+0+4+4+2+5+2+3+3+6+1+6 = 36

@AJF - 0+0+4+4+2+3+2+4+2+0+7+6 = 34

@Spikethedee - 0+0+0+3+3+3+4+5+0+5+1 = 24

@eindhovendee - 0+0+0+4+2+6+2+1+5+0+5+1 = 26

@stressball - 0+0+4+4+2+6+2+1+5+4+0+2 = 30

@Desp - 0+0+0+3+3+3+3+3+3+0+5+1 = 24

@gazelle83 - 0+0+4+4+2+1+2+4+5+0+0+6 = 28

@pozbaird - 1+1+4+1+3+3+2+4+3+0+0+6 = 28

@YassinMoutaouakil - 1+1+5+3+2+2+4+3+0+4+1+0 = 26

@thruthenight - 0+0+4+1+3+3+2+4+3+1+5+2 = 28

Page 2:

@DeeTillEhDeh - 0+0+4+1+4+2+2+4+5+4+1+1 = 28

@welldaft - 0+0+0+3+3+1+2+4+3+1+1+0 = 18

@Woodster - 1+1+4+4+2+3+2+2+5+4+0+0 = 28

@coprolite - 0+0+4+4+2+6+3+3+0+4+0+2 = 28

@DrewDon - 0+0+4+4+0+6+3+4+0+1+5+9 = 36

@Dons_1988 - 0+0+4+4+2+3+2+4+3+1+5+2 = 30

@LiviLion - 0+0+4+4+2+1+2+4+5+4+1+1 = 28

@Phillips455 - 0+0+4+4+4+1+4+4+5+0+5+1 = 32

@Richey Edwards - 6+4+2+7+1+4+2+1+1+7+3+0 = 38

@superwell87 - 1+1+4+4+2+3+2+2+3+6+1+1 = 30

Page 3:

@The Real Saints - 0+0+7+3+2+2+5+4+0+4+0+7 = 34

@Munoz - 0+0+4+1+0+2+2+4+5+4+0+2 = 24

@mizfit - 0+0+5+3+2+3+2+2+5+1+5+0 = 28

@Hoose Rice - 1+1+5+5+2+1+4+4+3+0+0+0 = 26

@johnnydun - 0+0+5+1+1+1+2+3+2+6+1+2 = 24

@Nadroj - 0+0+4+4+2+2+2+3+2+2+5+2 = 28

@LIVIFOREVER - 0+0+4+1+3+6+2+1+5+1+1+6 = 30

@Liam899 - 1+1+4+4+1+3+1+3+6+2+0+2 = 28

@Ludo*1 - 0+0+4+0+2+2+2+4+3+1+6+2 = 26

@topcat(The most tip top) - 0+0+0+4+2+3+2+4+5+0+5+1 = 26

@Saint Shug - 0+0+4+4+1+3+2+1+2+2+1+6 = 26

@AngusTheBull - 0+0+5+3+4+2+4+3+3+2+0+2 = 28

@Jim McLean's Ghost - 0+0+4+1+1+3+1+2+3+5+5+1 = 26

Page 4:

@Zamora Fan - 0+5+1+1+3+3+5+2+0+0+7+1 = 28

@PauloPerth - 0+0+4+1+1+2+5+2+2+4+6+3 = 30
-- Version 2 (Page 6): 0+0+4+1+1+2+5+3+3+1+1+3 = 24

@Lyle Lanley - 0+0+4+4+2+1+2+2+5+2+0+2 = 24

@itzdrk - 0+0+4+4+2+1+5+4+0+4+0+2 = 26

@Insert Amusing Pseudonym - 1+1+0+4+2+2+2+2+4+2+0+2 = 22

@RuMoore - 1+1+0+4+2+3+2+4+3+4+1+1 = 26

@Pens_Dark - 0+0+4+4+2+3+3+2+4+1+1+0 = 24

@Doonhame Buddie - 0+0+4+1+0+3+5+0+5+1+5+2 = 26

@AndyM - 0+0+4+4+2+3+1+3+5+1+1+2 = 26

@Les Cabbage - 0+0+5+3+0+3+2+4+2+4+1+2 = 26

@Terry_Tibbs - 0+0+0+3+3+6+2+1+5+1+5+2 = 28

Page 5:

@D Angelo Barksdale - 1+1+4+4+2+1+2+4+3+0+0+0 = 22

@Ya Bezzer! - 1+1+4+1+3+3+2+3+3+6+1+6 = 34

@Loon From Outta Toon - 0+0+4+1+3+1+2+4+2+4+7+2 = 30

@Lalo - 0+0+4+1+0+2+2+2+5+1+1+2 = 20

@C4mmy31 - 1+1+4+1+2+2+2+3+5+2+1+6 = 30

@Muirton Saint - 0+0+4+4+0+3+2+4+3+1+5+2 = 28

@AmericanFan - 1+1+4+1+4+6+4+0+4+4+7+2 = 38

@Slacker - 0+0+4+1+1+2+2+1+2+2+5+2 = 22

@Willie adie - 0+0+4+1+7+2+2+3+3+1+7+2 = 32

@Stylish Kid - 0+0+0+3+3+0+3+3+3+5+2+2 = 24

@jagfox - 0+0+4+1+3+2+2+3+2+0+5+0 = 22

@bilko89 - 1+1+4+4+2+3+2+3+5+4+1+2 = 32

@dezz - 0+0+4+1+3+3+2+4+3+1+1+2 = 24

@Buddie Holly - 0+0+4+4+0+3+2+2+3+6+0+2 = 26

@hoobahabba - 0+0+0+3+0+2+3+1+3+1+5+2 = 20

Page 6:

@Ian Mcleod - 0+0+4+4+1+5+2+5+3+2+2+2 = 30

@DG_RRFC - 0+0+4+1+3+3+2+3+3+4+7+2 = 32

@percyboy - 0+0+4+1+0+3+1+4+3+1+1+2 = 20

@Tony Wonder - 0+0+0+4+2+3+2+4+3+4+1+1 = 24

@Miguel Sanchez - 0+0+0+3+3+3+5+3+3+6+0+2 = 28

@WellHappy - 1+1+4+5+2+2+5+4+4+1+5+2 = 36

@GHF-23 - 0+0+5+1+2+3+3+3+3+4+0+2 = 26

@Sliv75 - 0+0+4+1+3+2+2+3+3+1+1+2 = 20

@STFU_Donny - 0+0+4+1+3+3+2+4+3+1+1+2 = 24

@HibsFan - 1+1+5+3+4+1+4+4+3+2+0+2 = 30

@Alert Mongoose - 0+0+4+1+4+2+5+3+4+6+1+6 = 36

@Hendricks - 0+0+0+3+3+3+3+3+2+2+1+6 = 26

@Steve McQueen - 0+0+0+3+0+2+1+1+2+4+1+0 = 14

@rainbowrising - 0+0+4+5+2+2+2+4+2+6+1+6 = 34

@Dysart - 0+0+4+1+3+3+3+3+3+1+5+2 = 28

@andrewh - 0+0+4+1+3+3+3+2+4+1+5+0 = 26

@Matty-RCFC - 0+0+4+1+3+3+3+3+2+0+1+6 = 26

@Staggie_93 - 0+0+4+1+3+3+3+3+2+2+5+2 = 28

@Gekko - 1+1+4+0+3+3+2+2+0+1+5+0 = 22

Page 7:

@Richie95 - 0+0+4+4+4+3+3+3+3+4+1+1 = 30

@Suspect Device - 1+1+4+1+3+3+2+2+3+6+0+2 = 28

@sergie's no1 fan - 0+0+4+1+3+1+5+4+2+1+5+2 = 28

 

Synopsis:

The majority of folk guessed the title winner correctly despite the departure of Ange in one of the more competitive title races in a while (how depressing is that?). As for the top six, most folks were stung by thinking money = success again and a decent dollop of recency bias after last season, and picked the big five to be the top five again. A fair few early predictions taking Hibs above Hearts which looks nuts now, sure the Naismith/McAvoy double act looked odd but the fact anyone ever had faith in Lee Johnson astounds me.

Naturally, Hibs and Aberdeen added plenty of points on, but the guess as to who would replace them was just as costly. Kilmarnock were expected to improve but very few saw such a rise (I had them 5th though, I will say ). The other big shock was Dundee, who were expected to continue the perpetual yo-yo ride or at least be near it, but instead squeezed into the top half. St Mirren were also underestimated but less so, as most seemed to see them as best of the rest, thus not costing too many people much points. The lottery to pick who gets 6th always appears as a toss-up, and recency bias seems to be favoured. Motherwell, fresh off their great run under Kettlewell and van Veen's scoring streak, were the ones favoured most to grab it. While they recovered late on in the season and nearly managed it, their 9th place finish threw off a decent amount of predictions too.

As for the bottom of the table, predictions for who was getting relegated was decently varied, but St Johnstone were given the edge in predictions due to their disastrous League Cup campaign and the lack of inspiration Steven Maclean brought. Had he stayed those people might well have been proven right, but a lot of things change in a season and replacing him with Craig Levein was just enough to pull them a couple of place above. Livingston had gone year after year overperforming, so for once they underperformed under David Martindale and sunk to the bottom, below most peoples' predictions of around 9th or 10th. Ross County meanwhile stuck to about where they were expected, once again needing the play-offs to survive.

Best Predictions:

Out of the 85 predictors, we had 13 who managed a predicton of 22 points or less, or about 15% of people. The five who managed a score of 22 were @Insert Amusing Pseudonym, @D Angelo Barksdale, @Slacker, @jagfox and @Gekko.

Six individuals went one better and nabbed a 20 point score, those being @Brmiddleton4, @Lalo, @hoobahabba, @percyboy, @Sliv75, and the very smart and definitely cool prognosticator, @RossBFaeDundee (if only I hadn't underestimated Dundee! ).

Particular props go to our runner-up with an excellent 18 points, @welldaft, who picked really well all the way back in mid-July and was only a Killie/Hibs swap away from really running away from the rest of the pack.

The outright winner however did create some distance between themselves and the rest, as @Steve McQueen knocked it out of the park with a sensational 14 points, having gone 5/6 in predicting both post-split groups, getting 5/12 exactly right and 8/12 within one place of their final position, just an excellent effort. Congrats to all named in this section, and particular to congrats on Steve for the victory, who can be thankful he was off by one on his St Johnstone prediction!

Worst Predictions:

15 out of 85 managed predictions of 32 or more, and while you can imagine Hibs and Aberdeen really added a lot of points to most folks' scores, people were quite creative with the combinations they came up with to reach these inauspicious heights.

Right out of the gate after the creation of this thread, @RandomGuy. went for it and chose to throw Livi in 6th place and a bottom 2 of Killie and Dundee among the standard top 6 for the Dons and Hibs, thus being the first to earn 32 points. He was joined by @Phillips455 (Well 5th; Hearts 7th; Killie & Dee below Livi), @Willie adie (Livi 5th; Buddies 8th; Dee 9th; Killie 11th), @bilko89 (nothing overly drastic, but not one perfect prediction) and @DG_RRFC (Killie in 11th the killer, too many 3's as well).

In the 34 point range, we have 4 entrants: @AJF (Killie and Dundee bottom 2, along with a rough middle pack), @The Real Saints (St Johnstone in 3rd, bless; Livi in 7th; Killie 8th, Buddies bottom), @Ya Bezzer! (Not one perfect prediction + Killie in 10th via "Turgid McInnesball" & "King of the yo-yo clubs" Dundee bottom) and @rainbowrising (Well in 4th; Livi 8th; Killie 10th; Dundee bottom  for shame!).

Similarly, we have 4 folk reaching the ignominious mark of 36 points. Those being @buddie06smfc (Ross Co 6th; Buddies 8th; Killie 10th; Dundee 12th), @DrewDon (Livi 6th & Dundee 11th were bad choices, but Drew's here for picking Hearts at 12th, a 9-point pick which was the highest of any submitted. Kudos!), @WellHappy (Three 5's, three 4's, and not even top 2 were right) and @Alert Mongoose (Well 5th; Livi 7th; County 8th; Dundee 12th).

Finally, at the bottom of the heap, we have 2 poster who managed a score of 38 points. First off we have the effort from the always very serious poster, @Richey Edwards. Obviously a good amount of the table every season is a crapshoot to predict, so Richey took a novel approach and placed teams in order of who he could remembered from first to last. Unfortunately the Aberdeen/Dundee title race, Ross County European effort and an Edinburgh derby relegation play-off fight didn't come to pass... but he can at least take solace in knowing he got Livingston at the bottom spot on!

Alongside Richey stands our friend from across the pond @AmericanFan, who pips Richey on account of making an earnest prediction I'm afraid. He weirdly enough got Hibs at 8th correct of all things, but a 5th to 7th of Motherwell, Livi and Ross County, along with St Mirren, Killie and Dundee all around the relegation zone, and even having Rangers winning the title, has earned him the unfortunate title of worst prediction for the 2023/24 season. Better luck next season to all tagged in this section!

Prediction rundown:

 14 points = 1
16 points = 0
18 points = 1
20 points = 6
22 points = 5
24 points = 11
26 points = 17
28 points = 19
30 points = 11
32 points = 5
34 points = 4
36 points = 4
 38 points = 2

 

Thanks to everyone who participated in the predictor all those months ago, it was a really good turnout and I hope we get even more for this new season coming up. If I have any advice for the next one, I'd say don't get too caught up in recency bias and remember that there's always one team who ends up nowhere near where you might expect.

Cheers!

Edited May 28 by RossBFaeDundee

[Insert Amusing Pseudonym]

This is exactly the kind of needless navel gazing I subscribe for,  great job @RossBFaeDundee

[Gekko]

Thanks to @RossBFaeDundeefor all the work, and well done @Steve McQueen

 

 

[Steve McQueen]

Everyone had Hearts, Hibs & Aberdeen 3rd -5th but anyone knows anything knows that at least one of those would mess up.

 

Who could have seen Dundee being a competent football club (on the pitch anyway).

[PauloPerth]

@RossBFaeDundee brilliant work. Must have taken ages but well worth it!!

congrats @Steve McQueen, you winning this is probably St Johnstone’s greatest achievement over the past 3 years.

[C4mmy31]

6 minutes ago, PauloPerth said:

@RossBFaeDundee brilliant work. Must have taken ages but well worth it!!

congrats @Steve McQueen, you winning this is probably St Johnstone’s greatest achievement over the past 3 years.

I'm disappointed.... Surely worthy of a Steve McQueen > St Johnstone > Great Escape reference 

[LIVIFOREVER]

Aye my Livi/ Dundee, Killie/Aberdeen predictions pretty much killed me, was way off the mark there. If i swapped them around for one another i'd have been about 17 pts better off.

[Stylish Kid]

On 15/04/2024 at 18:40, DeeTillEhDeh said:

Those who predicted Dundee bottom:

@RandomGuy.

@Lex

@buddie06smfc

@AJF

@gazelle83

@pozbaird

@LIVIFOREVER

@Saint Shug

@Ya Bezzer!

@C4mmy31

@Alert Mongoose

@Hendricks

@Matty-RCFC

@rainbowrising (obviously some reverse logic here)
 

There's another 22 posters who had us 11th.
 

I'd just like to point out, I had you 6th!

[LIVIFOREVER]

47 minutes ago, Stylish Kid said:

I'd just like to point out, I had you 6th!

I had Dundee in 6th place too, just got what half they'd be in post split wrong..

Edited May 28 by LIVIFOREVER

[Ya Bezzer!]

4 hours ago, Steve McQueen said:

Who could have seen Dundee being a competent football club (on the pitch anyway).

Two wins in their last 13 matches and most of the squad are loans.

McCowan will probably be away.

2024/25 prediction - 11th.

Obviously the team in 12th will have to be Jim Goodwin managed.

[RossBFaeDundee]

1 minute ago, Ya Bezzer! said:

Two wins in their last 13 matches and most of the squad are loans.

McCowan will probably be away.

2024/25 prediction - 11th.

Obviously the team in 12th will have to be Jim Goodwin managed.

Will the "Turgid McInnesball" rear its head again next season and have Killie near the bottom too?

[Ya Bezzer!]

3 minutes ago, RossBFaeDundee said:

Will the "Turgid McInnesball" rear its head again next season and have Killie near the bottom too?

Well this season proved that Turgid McInnesball is better than most of the other teams Turgid [insert manager name here] ball.

Still, 4-4-2 with Liam Donnelly and Liam Polworth in the middle.  Good luck in Europe!

[DrewDon]

11 hours ago, RossBFaeDundee said:

Drew's here for picking Hearts at 12th, a 9-point pick which was the highest of any submitted. Kudos!

And I'll be doing it again next season!

[C4mmy31]

1 hour ago, Ya Bezzer! said:

till, 4-4-2 with Liam Donnelly and Liam Polworth in the middle.  Good luck in Europe!

Donnelly & Polworth have won many Killie fans around. You won't find many with a bad word to say about either.  

[Insert Amusing Pseudonym]

I should be penalised 10 points for suggesting Beale was a good manager

[Cheese]

Happy with a top 13 finish, including predicting the bottom 3 correctly.

Edited May 29 by D Angelo Barksdale